Alien First Contact

Extraterrestrial Contact: Discovery and Response

2012-01-30T06:48:00.001-06:00

I’ve been discussing recently possible scenarios for First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. It’s a wide-ranging discussion, since it could happen in many different ways, if it ever happens at all. That may sound like the end of the story. But in reality First Contact itself just leads to a bigger question: what happens next? The response to First Contact could perhaps be more important than the discovery. The response will have a large role in determining our future as a civilization.

Most scientists work on the discovery and rightly so; it is undoubtedly the first step. However, the danger lies in the response. If we don’t have a road map to move forward after First Contact we could make knee-jerk decisions and those decisions could be harmful in both the short-term and long-term. First Contact would bring about many challenges across a wide-range of human institutions and endeavors.

It would be impossible to project a plan of response going very far into the future, primarily because much of our response would be determined by the nature of the extraterrestrial civilization, their intentions, the type of First Contact, the degree of impact and the areas of impact. First Contact could simply be a mysterious engineered signal that takes us dozens of years to understand. Or First Contact could be easily understandable and high-information in content, providing many new ideas and many challenges resulting from those new ideas. First Contact could be indirect, as in a long-term conversation across space. First Contact could also be direct, with many immediacy issues, such as threat and diplomacy.

With so many questions it’s easy to suggest that we put aside these considerations and focus on the discovery. I recognize that from a physical sciences perspective that makes sense. However, I believe there is value from a social science perspective in trying to better understand how humans perceive First Contact. That information can help us prepare some initial steps in our response to First Contact. There are many questions unanswered, even in those very first steps. What body should speak for planet Earth? Who should decide what we would say to an extraterrestrial civilization? How can we ensure that all humans are represented in that process? Should there even be representation or should it be controlled by experts in science or government? If researchers in one country make a discovery should it be shared with the world? Should decisions be made in secrecy or should the process be out in the open for all to see?

If you have been reading this blog for very long you can already predict my answers to those questions. I firmly believe that the response to First Contact needs to be determined by a body that represents all of the nations on the planet. All humans have a right to be represented in the process. I don’t think that scientists and government officials should be allowed to work in a vacuum or in secrecy after a signal is confirmed. We need an immediate response by an assigned body with, at the very least, an outline of what parts of that body should be involved in the response. I am speaking of the United Nations. It’s the only world body that represents the great majority of nations on Earth. I think the United Nations needs to have an outline for the first steps after the discovery of a signal. Those steps need to provide for a number of possible scenarios, ranging from the discovery of a mysterious engineered signal, all the way up to Direct First Contact here in our solar system. The U.N. needs to assign specific parts of its organization to the task of response and have a clearly defined decision making process. This needs to include input from the General Assembly along with some organized form of conversation and debate. Each of these steps needs to be completely transparent and open to all humans. There needs to be a mechanism to ensure that the process moves forward, even if the debate is extreme. It is unlikely that everyone will agree to any First Contact response process. Still, decisions will have to be made and humans will need to be able to react quickly, if necessary. The immediacy of the First Contact scenario will be the primary factor in this consideration. The discovery of a mysterious engineered signal could give us years to debate a response plan. Direct First Contact would require an immediate plan.

What we need is a vision for our future After First Contact. We would be entering into a new era of human history. We can either leap into an unknown abyss or take steps down a rough path of our own design. It’s our choice. The decisions need to be made now.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Most Likely Scenario

2012-01-23T06:43:00.005-06:00

For the last few weeks I have been discussing ideas I have for a dramatic and direct extraterrestrial First Contact event. While I enjoy considering such things I don’t think it’s the most likely form of First Contact, if it ever occurs at all.

SETI is the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It is a scientific effort that involves listening to radio frequencies for signals from outer space and then processing and evaluating the data through computer programs. The goal is to find an engineered signal. Along the way many false signals must be examined and then weeded out. Thus far the effort has not yielded evidence of an engineered signal. However, only a small portion of space has been examined. Efforts today tend to concentrate on star systems where it is more likely that life-sustaining planets may exist. SETI is primarily based in radio astronomy; however it was also moved into a discussion of visual and particle transmissions that might be used by alien civilizations.

I’m a big supporter of the SETI scientific community. It is the only science based method that we have for approaching this huge question. It is conducted by astrophysicists and other scientists who have made the decision to stake their careers in a fringe outpost of the scientific world. Through their dedication and credentials, they have slowly moved the SETI effort closer to the mainstream of science and promoted a larger conversation about issues of extraterrestrial intelligence. They do this at professional risk and with a great deal of personal sacrifice. I applaud them for their efforts.

The primary group leading this effort is the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California. Jill Tarter, Seth Shostack, Douglas Vakoch and the other SETI Institute scientists lead the movement to a better understanding of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and perhaps just as important, they have been active, vocal advocates for exploring the human response to extraterrestrial intelligence contact issues. They continually base their discussions in the scientific method. This has provided a measure of respectability to the field that didn’t exist a few decades ago.

The International Astronomical Union has also been on the forefront of SETI consideration. The journal Acta Astronautica regularly publishes research papers related to extraterrestrial intelligence. The Royal Society of Great Britain has contributed much with entire journal issues dedicated to the issue and numerous conferences about ETI.

There have been many pioneers who have made this current conversation regarding extraterrestrial contact possible. Frank Drake and those creative astrophysicists, who met in Green Bank, West Virginia in 1961 to discuss the first search effort, set the path forward. Carl Sagan brought the ideas to the general public. Scientists like Paul Davies continue to explore the possibilities with the world.

My blog explores a relatively narrow slice of this conversation, one that the scientists don’t normally have time to consider. They don’t consider it much because it is based almost purely in speculation and science is founded in process and the discovery of fact. I accept that and understand the concern that my blog might raise with them. Still, I encourage you to support the SETI scientific effort and the amazing work being done by scientists worldwide in a number of space exploration fields. The NASA Kepler Mission is literally changing our understanding of the universe on a weekly basis with the discovery of new planets. We must support this scientific effort by letting our lawmakers know that this is important work and an effort that needs to be well funded. The SETI Institute was forced to seek private funding some time ago and you can help them directly. Please do as I have done and donate to the cause. Individual contributions recently brought the Allen Telescope Array back online and that re-started the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

There are unlikely to be clear and decisive answers to the question of whether we are alone in the universe. The discovery of an engineered signal from far-off in space will likely generate great debate and years of scientific investigation, all of which will occur in the usual human fashion of conflict and debate. Hopefully, this will eventually lead to some degree of understanding. In any event, there is much hard work to be done and any support we can give the scientists involved in such efforts would probably be appreciated.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Shock Value

2012-01-17T07:03:00.002-06:00

Last week I reiterated my argument that a direct and dramatic First Contact event might be a good way to introduce an extraterrestrial civilization to the people of planet Earth. I suggested that if extraterrestrials were to fly a spacecraft into Earth atmosphere and fly it above a mid-sized American city, they could engage the world news media directly, bypassing governments and other institutions that might seek to control such a message. There is another reason that such a method might be helpful to visiting extraterrestrials: shock value.

Shock is not always a bad thing. It can provide a period of time in which humans are stunned and do not react in their usual fashion. Why is this beneficial? Well, think of our usual human reactions to global events: self-interest, fear, greed, hegemony and protectionism. Now granted, that’s not the case in major natural disasters, and I think those responses are important for this argument. In a great international crisis we often manage to suspend our conflicts to some degree in order to react to help the effected nation. I think a dramatic and direct First Contact event of the type I have described would create an international crisis of sorts. If managed properly to minimize fear and protectionism, there would be value in the initial period when people are stunned. This period would allow the alien visitors to get a message of introduction to all humans. It provides the opportunity to engage the institutions that would be most beneficial for a positive long-term diplomatic effort. I suggest the United Nations, as it is the world body that represents the most individual nations and that has a framework to support such efforts.

Shock requires people and institutions to react differently at first than they normally might. There has never been any situation close to such an event in human history. There is no established protocol. Previous experience would not apply. It would force people to think, pardon the cliché, out of the box. Now, I don’t think this period of being stunned would last for long, perhaps just a few days or a couple of weeks. Eventually, humans would return to their usual positions and begin to react in the ways they have in the past. This means that much work needs to be done in the stunned period. An entire process for introduction and diplomacy would need to be established and established quickly.

There are, of course, many dangers in shock. The primary concern would probably be the military reaction. Shock could cause the military to respond with force and the result could be disastrous. I think there is something helpful in how we have formulated our reaction to terrorism here in the United States. There have been several circumstances of aircraft doing things considered threatening in the last ten years. In every circumstance the responding fighter pilots have reacted with thoughtful caution. These pilots are trained to evaluate threat in a calm and collected manner. If an alien ship moved in a way to lower the threat perception, a hostile response by humans could be prevented. It would also be important to start a message of introduction as quickly as possible, to provide information and decrease uncertainty.

The other danger of shock comes in our financial system. Such an event would cause extreme uncertainty in the world markets. The markets do not like uncertainty. The stunned period could extend to the markets at first, but that would likely change quickly as people began to consider the financial risk posed by First Contact and tried to engage the financial opportunities that such a revelation would create. Luckily, the past few years have brought a better understanding of the interconnectedness of the global financial system and strengthened institutional control over crisis reactions. We are in a much better position today to provide some degree of global financial security in the event of such a dramatic event.

I know, many of you may think I am off the deep end by discussing such things. Sorry, I enjoy considering this line of thought. I don’t think that First Contact with humans has occurred and I doubt it will occur for many, many more years. However, I do think First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization will happen eventually and a discussion now could help set the table for a reasonable and positive human response in the future. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Extraterrestrial Contact: Dramatic and Direct

2012-01-09T06:58:00.002-06:00

It’s a classic Hollywood plot line: aliens arrive on Earth in a spacecraft to make an introduction. It’s a cliché and as such I think we dismiss the benefits of such an introduction. I think there is great value in a Direct First Contact event and a dramatic one at that.

This blog stakes out some relatively open territory in the conversation regarding human First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. I don’t believe we have made First Contact yet. I don’t believe there is evidence of UFOs being anything but natural phenomenon and misunderstood man-made occurrences. I don’t think that a Direct First Contact event, with aliens arriving on Earth, is very likely. However, I do like to speculate about what might realistically happen if Direct First Contact ever does occur and discuss the process we might need to employ to make First Contact a positive experience, or at least as positive as possible.

My suggested scenario is this: pilot a spacecraft into Earth atmosphere and have it appear above a mid-sized American city. This method of First Contact would set into motion forces that would be hard for anyone to stop. Why an American city? The answer is the news media. The American television news media has the technology and interconnectedness to start a news coverage wave that would spread internationally in a very short time. Thus, enterprising aliens could make an introduction to the world, bypassing governments, scientific agencies and others who might seek to control such an introduction. There is immediate transparency and a method for disseminating an unfiltered message to all humans at once. The visual event of a spacecraft in Earth atmosphere is important because it allows the news media to control the story, not relying on scientific and possibly governmental involvement, as a transmission from space might. It also has an advantage in that it is something we have seen dozens of times in the movies. Now, many of those movies don’t feature a very positive portrayal of alien intentions, so those hopefully good intentions would have to be relayed immediately and it would be important to show no threat in the dramatic event itself.

Why should space aliens give a damn? If the aliens have good intentions they would probably be concerned about human reaction. There is already plenty of paranoia and distrust to go around on this planet in our daily lives. The appearance of extraterrestrials would amp that up considerably, potentially to dangerous levels. An introduction to humans and not through the institutions of humanity would create an openness that could help the entire process. Why should extraterrestrials care about openness? Imagine the distrust and concern if an extraterrestrial civilization was to make contact with one particular nation? Global politics is a delicate balance of opportunity, risk, security and self-interest. Extraterrestrial First Contact with one nation would set off a firestorm of global political debate and could potentially harm extraterrestrial relations for many years to come. So, why not just engage the United Nations directly? Give me the practical way in which you would have the extraterrestrials approach the massive bureaucracy that is the United Nations? An initial introduction to all humans via the news media could quickly lead to a more formal introduction through the United Nations. From there a process for formal extraterrestrial relations could be established.

In short, a direct and dramatic First Contact event would allow the extraterrestrials to control the message, while providing humans the ability to control the process. Control would be an important concern in the wake of First Contact. Humans will need to feel secure in a very dynamic set of circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty. A Direct First Contact event does nothing more than say hello, and perhaps suggest a more formal introduction to the United Nations General Assembly. This would provide a strong argument for having the United Nations lead the diplomacy effort, which might not be the case if First Contact was made with an individual nation.

There are plenty of reasons for why such a scenario might not work. Without some sort of stealth technology an extraterrestrial craft would be quickly picked up by various near Earth orbit surveillance systems, let along U.S. military radar. The aliens could be concerned about their safety. They might not have a big, dramatic looking spacecraft. They might not be able to fly a spacecraft in Earth atmosphere. They might feel that entering Earth atmosphere without an invitation would be threatening. All are understandable worries. Hopefully, extraterrestrials advanced enough in technology to visit our solar system would be able to ensure their own safety and fly a craft in Earth atmosphere. As far as the invitation goes, quite frankly I think this is the scenario that humans have come to expect in Direct First Contact.

So, there it is. I think there is value in silly speculation of this sort. The speculation allows us to explore many scenarios about how Direct First Contact might actually be accomplished. It seems to me the scenarios that matter the most are the ones that might actually work and those that will have the best possibility for a relatively positive outcome.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Do We Believe Them?

2012-01-03T07:23:00.000-06:00

Part of the problem with speculation about extraterrestrial contact is that we often tend to gloss over the details, which is understandable, considering that the details could turn out in a million different ways. Speculation is always suspect if it has no basis in fact. There is no evidence regarding extraterrestrials, so we have no fact for foundation.

So, why am I wasting my time?

I believe that there is one thing we can discuss that has relevance: the process of extraterrestrial contact. Now granted, to even begin this discussion we will have to make a few assumptions, to narrow the playing field so to speak. Let’s confine our thinking to high-information First Contact, that is, First Contact that involves humans receiving a great deal of information from an extraterrestrial source. It could be a signal sent to us from a far-off planet. It could be information provided to us in a Direct First Contact scenario closer to home. There is one part of the process that I think would be essential in any response to high-information First Contact. We would need to employ critical thinking at every step.

Here’s a scenario to show what I mean. Humans receive a transmission from another world. In the transmission the sender/senders describe their world, their culture, their science and how they perceive the universe. Well, that would be one hell of a long transmission. But let’s say those are the highlights. What do we do with that information? Unfortunately, I think it depends on who receives the information here on Earth and how it is disseminated. If the transmission is easily translated or perhaps written in a human language (both unlikely, granted) the entire transmission could just be released publicly. Then everyone could be involved in the discovery process. Very exciting. But there is one clear danger: not everyone on the planet employs critical thinking. Unfortunately, it’s much easier to believe what we are told. And if the source is an extraterrestrial, then who are we to question what they say? Scientists and other academics would likely be skeptical. They would probably ask a series of questions. Who is this information coming from? Is it from one source, from one particular culture of this extraterrestrial civilization? Is this information the product of a much larger process involving many facets of the extraterrestrial civilization? Are there other extraterrestrial civilizations that might have a differing view of things? What is the agenda of the authors? What are they hoping to accomplish by releasing the information to us? Could there be a hidden agenda that we are not aware of? Human scientists would probably add another set of questions: what empirical evidence do you have to show that the universe operates in the way you describe?

These questions would get quite complicated. Depending on the method of transmission a reply could take decades, if not longer. In the meantime, how does the public react? If provided the information wholesale, there could be dangers in misinterpretation. People could seize on particular parts of the transmission to support a political or religious view that they have. There would, needless to say, be tremendous debate and discussion. All of that could be beneficial, but only if we have some organized process to help lead the discussion. Such a scenario would be the first time that humans had encountered a great deal of information at one time. The entire planet would need to employ critical thinking in a sense, and of course with critical thinking being a hard process, many would choose not to do so or quickly jump to conclusions based on their way of thinking about the universe. We’ve discussed that the lack of information often causes humans to fill in the gaps with their own particular perspective. I think that massive amounts of extraterrestrial information could have the same effect.

So, the other option would be for scientists to keep the transmission from the public at first, and then have an organized process of scientific discussion. The subsequent information could then be released, bit by bit, with thoughtful and educated analysis. There would certainly be a fist-fight over who would get to be employed in such a remarkable and important role. It would have to be an international group with solid academic credentials and an emphasis on impartiality. Someone would need to make the decision over who would be included in that group. But embargoing the information to the public could cause another reaction: distrust. Fringe groups, and even those in the mainstream, could find such an embargo threatening. Such concerns could lead to speculation about conspiracies. Some would ask: who is controlling such important information and for what purposes? What is being kept from us?

I think the only solution in a high-information First Contact situation is complete transparency and openness, combined with an active and high-profile process of critical thinking lead by key academics. This process would need to be broadcast to the world, so that the resulting conversation would become as equally important as the information from the transmission itself. Will it be an ugly, tumultuous process full of heated debate? Of course. With humans, such global discussions are always interesting. It will be a necessary process though, and we might find that after many years of discussion, what we think of the alien transmission has changed to some extent. The more questions we ask, the more questions will be raised. Hopefully, at some point we could ask those questions of our new extraterrestrial pen pals and get a thoughtful response. In the end, the process we use to disseminate and discuss the information would be almost as important as the information itself. The great thing about process is that it is something we can consider now, before we ever receive extraterrestrial information.

First Contact may never happen and there are those who say, why waste your time thinking about it? First Contact of any type would fundamentally change human civilization and in a high-information First Contact situation that change could be quite dramatic. Doesn’t that make it worth discussing now? Let’s just take a tiny fraction of the time we spend discussing celebrity foibles and apply that energy and effort to the consideration of First Contact. If we’re going to waste our time, let’s waste it on something important.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Human Reaction

2011-12-26T06:20:00.001-06:00

There’s a big difference between speculation and science. Much of this blog is speculation, the fiction side of science fiction. The science of SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, is founded in physics. However, there is another type of science that is also important in SETI consideration, the social science of human perception and behavior. Psychologist Douglas Vakoch leads this mission in his role as social scientist at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California. Social scientists considering issues of First Contact are a small group. While some like to argue that all considerations of the impact of First Contact on the human civilization are speculative, there is one realm that can be researched in a scientific method: current human perception. If we know what humans think of extraterrestrial First Contact now, we can better discuss how institutions might need to prepare for First Contact in the future.

Vakoch published an important paper in Acta Astronautica in 2000 with Chinese researcher Y.S. Lee. In a nutshell, the paper explores the idea that human reactions to the prospect of First Contact are complicated, with at times divergent or contradictory responses. The basic question put forth is whether human reaction can be plotted as a continuum or should rather be thought of as a series of interrelated reactions. Also, do humans project their own attributes to extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) when considering whether First Contact would likely be positive or negative?

The survey study was conducted with two similar and dissimilar groups: college students in Hong Kong, China and Nashville, Tennessee. The obvious flaw can be noticed immediately. College students, by their very position, are likely to be better educated than the majority of humans. The authors acknowledge as much in the discussion. However, the choice of Americans and Chinese is quite important. It shows that different cultures may view First Contact differently. It also chooses two nationalities that would be highly influential in any First Contact response by humans and nations that could conflict in such a situation.

The authors explore attitudes and opinions in four domains with their subjects: dispositional optimism, anthropocentrism, religiosity and alienation. They use statements to assess current beliefs, utilizing a variety of scales for measurement. They presented the students with a series of questions and a hypothetical scenario, involving humans receiving an ETI message from space.

Most interesting in the results was that Americans were more likely to have expectations of ETI benevolence or malevolence as a simple either-or proposition. Chinese students however were shown to have a more complicated perspective, often considering that ETI could be both benevolent and malevolent.

Religious beliefs also had a big impact on perception. Not surprisingly, the students who considered themselves to be more religious were less likely to believe in the existence of extraterrestrial life. Religious Americans in the study were also more likely to view proven ETI as most likely hostile or untrustworthy. The Chinese students who fell into the alienated end of a scale (considering alienation and optimism as the poles) were more likely to believe that there would be religious significance in First Contact, in that humans could probably learn a lot from the religious teachings of ETI. The authors say this shows the Chinese students more likely to look to ETI for a sense of meaning.

The study also shows that those with strong religious beliefs could be more likely to have a negative reaction to First Contact. The discovery of ETI would pose significant challenges for anthropocentric individuals. These are reactions that some of use might expect from such a situation. However, this study takes the idea beyond speculation and provides some meaningful data to consider.

As for the issue of projecting ones personality on the concept of First Contact, the researchers say their results show that in the absence of information individuals will react in ways that more represent who they are and how they think, than the reality of the situation. If an ETI signal is ever discovered, deciphering the signal may be a difficult and time-consuming proposition. There will likely be an information “vacuum” of sorts that could last for some time.

Why should you give a damn about an 11 year-old research study? Human reaction to First Contact would be tremendously important. The public reaction would likely influence the response of world leaders and the institutions they represent. Those responses would decide the future of human-extraterrestrial relations. By studying our current human perceptions we can better prepare those institutions for the reaction to First Contact. And if the unlikely event ever does occur, such research could provide an important road map to help us plot a course for human response and the development of extraterrestrial relations. We have a choice in our response to First Contact. We can make hasty, knee-jerk decisions or we can utilize the findings of dedicated social science researchers to help us make intelligent and informed decisions.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Thinking Like Them

2011-12-19T06:59:00.001-06:00

The consideration of extraterrestrial contact is pure speculation. There is no evidence that extraterrestrial life exists in any form. I believe this will change quite soon thanks to dedicated researchers and exciting new space missions. Perhaps someday we will even discover extraterrestrial intelligence. Still, there is always the possibility that there is an extraterrestrial civilization out there and they are going to beat us to the punch, saying hello before we can find them ourselves. It’s an outlier, I know, and yet I believe it deserves a bit of thought.

Part of that thought involves viewing things from their perspective. How can we think like them if we have no idea who we might be talking about? The alien perspective would be entirely driven by who they are: their biology, senses, intelligence, technology and civilization. We have no idea what those details might entail. There is one factor that we can speculate about: not being us. One thing that we could probably assume from extraterrestrial contact is that they will not be us. This seems a bit obvious, but there is something that can be gained from this line of thinking. How would someone view humans from the perspective of the visitor? If we can put aside our cultural and geographical bias we can try to take on an extraterrestrial perspective.

The first things they would probably study would be the physical make-up of our planet, the biological life forms on the planet, human biology and probably human psychology. Our civilization might be next. I think the first thing they might notice are the ways in which we are joined globally and ways in which we remain apart. Our system of nations would be one of the first things an outsider might notice when researching human civilization. Our cultural and religious differences would also be quite obvious as having a big impact on our civilization. Just these three categories drive much of human interaction with both positive and negative results. Technology would certainly be top of mind for a visitor. They would have to be at a higher level in technology than us to research our planet in the first place. They would most likely have great interest in our scientific systems and technological achievements. These elements alone could keep alien researchers busy for years.

Needless to say that alien considerations of all of these topics would be based on their perspective, however I believe that by taking a wider perspective, we could start to develop a plan of action to better respond to high-information First Contact, if it ever occurs. This is only an issue for us in the event that they decide to say hello. Let me point out that this type of high-information, high-interaction First Contact is the least likely form of contact. It is however the particular sliver of the conversation that this blog tends to examine.

An alien civilization with advanced technology could probably study us for decades without us ever knowing. They would always be one step ahead of us in terms of making sure our technology could not detect the probe or whatever means they used to conduct their study. At this point almost everything an extraterrestrial civilization would need is available on the Internet. A secret connection to the Internet, with a hidden form of transmission would probably not be tough for an alien scientist to set up and monitor.

So, what can we gain from thinking like an alien? It can help us answer some of the basic questions of First Contact. What do they expect from us? What would they perceive as our strengths and weaknesses? What concerns would they have in how we might react?

On the other side, there are questions we can consider. How can we organize to take advantage of First Contact? What are some of our weaknesses and our strengths in a First Contact situation? What would we need to do to respond to high-information, high-interaction First Contact? How could we protect our civilization and cultures in the wake of First Contact?

Some researchers, among them Albert Harrison, Allen Tough, Douglas Vakoch and Michael Michaud, have attempted to answer some of these questions. By taking on an extraterrestrial perspective, we aren’t really thinking like an extraterrestrial, we are merely viewing our world from an outsiders view. We have many advantages in this study. We know human society better than anyone else. We can ask questions about the human reaction and come up with ideas, based purely on what we already know about ourselves. There’s advantage in doing such. If high-information First Contact ever does occur it will be our only roadmap moving forward. Truly it is just a trace of a path through a dense and complicated jungle. But it’s better than nothing.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Their Rules

2011-12-12T06:39:00.003-06:00

We like to think of extraterrestrial First Contact, at least in the most positive form, as a knowledge grab of sorts. We expect that upon meeting members of an alien civilization they will simply open up the floodgates and tell us everything they know. This doesn’t seem very likely.

First Contact will probably not occur in such a straight forward manner anyway. The discovery of a signal would lead to years of research, a return message of our own and perhaps decades later a reply of some sort. But if we are lucky enough to experience high-information First Contact, in some timely manner, it would likely be with a civilization far in advance of our own in terms of technology. That means we would have to play by their rules.

Let’s take the alien perspective for a moment. Why would they want to give us the sum of their many years of collected knowledge? We haven’t earned it. Secondly, it’s hard to say what we would do with it in the first place. Even if the extraterrestrial civilization in question was just hundreds of years in advance of us, it seems unlikely we could even begin to comprehend their understanding of science and technology. After all, science as we know it is a system of building blocks with each discovery leading to many more years of dedicated research and in laborious, painstaking turn eventually leading to new discoveries. Alien knowledge would likely be built in the same fashion and in a set of circumstances probably much different than ours. What could we make of the end result? If one could go back just 90 years and drop the latest version of the iPhone in the lap of Thomas Edison what would we expect him to do with it? Sure, he might find some inspiration to create a new technology based on something he learned from the iPhone, but without a cell network and the internet it wouldn’t be very exciting. Perhaps Edison would only manage to create a primitive version of Angry Birds? Not very useful. In reality, the technology in the iPhone is so advanced that Edison might not get much out of it at all.

It seems to me that beneficent aliens would have several concerns (the ones harboring us ill will would be unlikely to share much at all, and if they did it would be trouble). The first concern is understanding. I have said before that an extraterrestrial civilization would have to educate us, so that we could begin to understand basic knowledge from their perspective. That could take many years. Then, there would be the dangers associated with outside knowledge so quickly gained. We could develop technology that we don’t fully understand and end up harming ourselves and our environment. We could completely wash out the foundation of our systems of scientific research, becoming unable to move forward in a substantial way. We could become completely dependent on alien knowledge. We could lose our independence, our resourcefulness, our drive and eventually our culture. We would be like fat natives sitting on a beach while the colonials spoon feed us. We would come to realize, some years down the road, that we had lost everything we cared about. Sounds pretty negative, right? Well, it’s something to consider, not matter how outlandish it may seem.

Ultimately though, in a one-sided high-information First Contact event we will be playing by their rules. They will determine what they want to let us know and how they will communicate that knowledge. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should go along with their wishes. It’s our planet and out culture. We need to be protective of who we are and what we are. We need to determine our future. That means that there should be a careful balance between alien desires and human actions. One would hope beneficent aliens would have considered all of this and be a bit stand-offish. They may only give us a few simple guiding ideas and let us explore the resulting insights. They may not want to tell us anything at all about technology and science. They may simply explain who they are and where they came from and leave the rest for us to determine. No matter what, the process won’t be easy. I don’t think anyone on this planet has fully grasped the enormity of what it would mean to meet an extraterrestrial intelligence far in advance of us in technology. There would be a thousand different considerations and pitfalls at every step. We would have to tread lightly going into the new era After First Contact, and we would need to hope that our new extraterrestrial acquaintances had thought it out thoroughly, before ever saying hello.

Kudos to NASA Kepler Researchers!

2011-12-05T11:06:00.000-06:00

An exciting announcement today from the Kepler Mission:

"NASA's Kepler mission has confirmed its first planet in the "habitable zone," the region where liquid water could exist on a planet’s surface. Kepler also has discovered more than 1,000 new planet candidates, nearly doubling its previously known count. Ten of these candidates are near-Earth-size and orbit in the habitable zone of their host star. Candidates require follow-up observations to verify they are actual planets."

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/news/kepscicon-briefing.html

Extraterrestrial Contact: Negative Scenarios

2011-12-05T06:35:00.001-06:00

My cat is quite jumpy. He was born feral and even though he lives in the house, even I can cause him to jump from time to time. It’s for good reason. There are plenty of things out there that would like to eat a cat. Caution is what keeps him alive. Caution is also what keeps humans alive. I suppose you could call it reasonable fear. So, it’s hard to fault anyone for having concerns about extraterrestrial First Contact. If it ever does occur, alien visitors could just as easily harbor ill will towards us as they could practice beneficence. As I have mentioned before, I think it is even more likely that aliens would have a complicated mix of motives, many of which could be hard for us to understand. Even good intentions on their part could be quite harmful to the human civilization. So, caution on the part of humans would be important for keeping our human civilization alive and healthy. A group of researchers published some scenarios for First Contact recently in Acta Astronautica. They point out that developing scenarios is important in preparing a risk analysis for First Contact. They also delve into the more complex side of scenarios, points that most writers ignore. So, in the spirit of the article I suggest these possibilities, on the negative side:

-Outright aggression: This is the Hollywood classic attack on planet Earth. It seems unlikely we would get any advance notice.

-Extreme hidden deception: A favorite of conspiracy folks, this scenario involves a secret alien invasion of the covert type that subverts our government and other institutions.

-Extreme outright deception: In this event the aliens would come out and say hello, but in reality have a destructive hidden agenda. Think of the television series “V.”

-Hidden manipulation: A bit different from hidden deception. This would involve the aliens making secret treaties with one nation or group of nations, to the detriment of others.

-Outright manipulation: A public welcome aimed at one particular nation or group of nations. It would be designed to show open allegiance to one particular style of government, religion or culture. It could be used to support a wider agenda.

-Subtle manipulation: A public welcome for the entire world and then a slow and subtle move towards supporting particular governments, religions or cultures on Earth. This might be the most dangerous, because it would be hard to recognize at first.

-Agenda setting: In this scenario, the aliens want us to behave in a certain way. It could be benign, as in encouraging us to take better care of our environment, or intrusive, perhaps supporting a religious or philosophical view they have.

-Galactic political manipulation: If there are many extraterrestrial civilizations out there, and if they have regular contact with each other, there could very well be political conflict between those civilizations. First Contact with Earth could be a first step in trying to influence humans in a much larger political arena; one that we never knew existed. This would be extremely dangerous for us in the long-term. We could be forced to get all of our information about galactic politics from the one set of visitors, with no access to objective information. This scenario could be much worse if active warfare is waged as part of that galactic political conflict. We could get drawn into a military conflict that we do not understand and without the technology to protect ourselves.

-They don’t give a damn about us: This might seem like a neutral scenario, but it could have negative consequences. Perhaps we discover an extraterrestrial civilization, even one passing nearby, and yet they want nothing to do with us (there is a classic science fiction story with this exact premise: Arthur C. Clarke’s “Rendezvous with Rama”). We are left with the information that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations are out there, with very little knowledge about their intentions or numbers or level of technology. That would be scary. How would we react? Would we go into a frenzy of planetary defense building? See the own worst enemy entry coming up for the rest of the story.

-Good intentions, bad results: The aliens could come with perfectly noble intentions, such as providing us with the technology to solve our energy problems and helping us protect our environment. However, that information could be damaging to our systems of science, research and discovery. We could become dependent on alien knowledge and flaccid in the areas of research. Such a process could undermine human civilization in ways that we cannot imagine.

-Our own worst enemy: I’m going to call this the most likely negative scenario. In this event, the aliens don’t do anything negative and yet we have dangerous conflict between nations on Earth, as we attempt to deal with the new reality and as we fight for advantage. Conflict of some sort between nations is inevitable After First Contact. The true question is if we will allow that conflict to grow and be destructive, or whether we will use the conflict as a thoughtful debate that helps us to make better decisions and move forward.

These scenarios are not pretty and in some circumstances they could cause an early demise for humanity. So, what do we do? I propose that we act exactly like my cat. He knows that there are plenty of things that would like to eat him. He faces threats each and every day. Yet, every morning that cat goes running outside with his tail up and heads straight into the woods to face his fears. He’ll probably be rather jumpy out there and hopefully cautious in where he goes and what he does. I think that humans will need to do the same. The reality of extraterrestrial life should not cause us to isolate ourselves, smother our quest for knowledge or freak out with a massive arms buildup. If First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization ever occurs, we must face it with equal parts of excitement and caution. We should proceed with optimism and skepticism. We must think critically and act boldly. We must make the changes needed to strengthen the human civilization and prepare ourselves for a challenging future- a future full of risk and opportunity.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Players

2011-11-28T05:34:00.006-06:00

I suggest in this blog that an extraterrestrial civilization interested in making Direct First Contact could leverage the power and technology of the international news media to reach all humans with a message of introduction. I don’t necessarily believe there are extraterrestrials out there waiting to do such. It’s merely a suggestion of what could be done.

What happens next would depend on some key players. These are some of the players I think would be involved in the response to Direct First Contact:

-President of the United States: The country with the most established space program and greatest military strength would certainly be a major player in any First Contact event, no matter how it occurs. The President of the United States would likely have a huge impact through direct actions (deployment of military forces, NASA and other federal agencies) and the indirect actions, such as global leadership. Other nations would look to the U.S. for an indication of how they should react. A President who handles First Contact in a thoughtful and rational way could set the tone for the world reaction. Knee-jerk and fear-based reactions could be disastrous. The Hollywood view of the President somehow being the defacto leader of Earth in such an interaction is, of course, ridiculous. The United States would play a part in such an event; however it would only be one player on a crowded international stage.

-China and Russia: Both of these nations have the military power and international influence to change the nature of First Contact. They also have highly-developed space agencies and scientific communities, both of which would be critical in the response to First Contact. It would be important to engage Russian and Chinese leaders immediately in any First Contact response. The Chinese reaction is especially important because of the unique nature of the Chinese government and economy. China might react quite differently than other nations to First Contact.

-Other World governments: There’s more to global politics than just the actions of the old fashion big three: the United States, China and Russia. The individual governments of other powerful nations on Earth have the ability to influence First Contact in many ways. Governments, such as Germany, influence other countries both regionally and, as blocs, internationally. Their reaction would be critical to the overall international response. They also have military power that could make things more complicated and potentially dangerous. Considering the reaction of certain influential countries on Earth, outside of the big three, would be essential.

-Political groups within nations: We would be naive to think that politics would not be a major force in First Contact response. Political groups would stake out turf and look to protect their interests in the wake of First Contact. The political battles in each country will have a profound impact on the overall international response, unless the other key group involved, the United Nations, can find the strength to act independently.

-United Nations Security Council: This would likely be the first group charged with responding to First Contact at an international level. This powerful group of nation representatives handles international security issues for the United Nations. They could set the tone for First Contact diplomacy.

-United Nations Secretary General: Calm, cool and decisive leadership would be important in any First Contact scenario. In the United Nations this leadership would need to start with the Secretary General.

-United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space: COPUOS is the primary United Nations group to consider space issues and it seems likely that they would have a major role in a First Contact event. This committee has been presented with First Contact preparation proposals on several occasions and has failed to act on them.

-The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs: The primary functions of UNOOSA are space treaties and the consideration of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). However, given their unique functions at the U.N. they would most likely be a critical group in any First Contact scenario. The current director, Mazlan Othman, has seriously considered First Contact issues. Thus far, however, she has not been able to get the UNOOSA parent body, COPUOS, to pay serious attention.

-SETI scientific community: If First Contact comes in the form of the discovery of an engineered signal, clearly SETI scientists would be front and center. It would probably be they who would discover such a signal in the first place. However, SETI scientists also have an important function in other First Contact scenarios. These scientists are a small group of dedicated researchers who have actively and rationally considered the impact of First Contact. It seems likely the media would need them as expert commentators in the wake of First Contact. It also seems logical that the United Nations would turn to them for advice and counsel.

-Social scientists: Very few social scientists have actively considered First Contact issues. And yet this may be the most important field After First Contact. Social scientists would be needed to take the collective pulse of human society. The social sciences could monitor reactions in the world economy and the global political arena. Scientists would need to evaluate human perception of First Contact, to help us better understand the public reaction taking place. Surveys and analysis would provide the United Nations and other world leaders with important data to help them move forward.

-Mainstream media: Leveraging the news media for live coverage of First Contact has certain implications. That coverage would certainly depend on how an extraterrestrial civilization decided to use the media to reach humanity. The most important part of the process would actually come later for the news media as editors and reporters find the time needed to develop enterprise stories. These pieces are not part of the breaking news/headline news cycle. Enterprise stories focus on a range of subjects outside of the obvious. For example, if we know that aliens exist, then no matter what the aliens tell us, the alien abduction folks would suddenly seem a lot more believable. The media would probably have to consider some of these “conspiracy based” ideas. How far do they take it? How much does that coverage influence the overall process?

-Alternative media: First Contact would lead to much speculation. The very notion that an extraterrestrial civilization exists would open the door for a wide range of theories and ideas, many of which may fall on the fringe of current commentary and yet would find new life in the wake of First Contact. How web communities respond to First Contact would be essential for what happens next. If conspiracy theories and fear spread on the Internet the mainstream media will be forced to consider such issues. The result could be a collective hysteria of sorts that would not be good for human civilization.

-Fringe elements: Religious, political and cultural groups have elements on the fringe of majority thought. Those fringe groups, by their very nature being small, can react more dynamically than the rest of the population to situations, creating disruption and perhaps chaos. A certain amount of fringe reaction is important for the overall conversation. First Contact would need to include a number of different viewpoints and consider a variety of concerns. However, the degree to which fringe elements drive the overall world response may ultimately dictate what happens after First Contact. Fringe elements often speak the loudest and react in visible ways that garner a great deal of attention. They are not necessarily acting in the best interest of the public or acting for the common good. They often have a particular agenda and seek to gain power.

-Sensible majority: The Arab Spring protests and recent Occupy Wall Street movement shows that the Internet can be a powerful tool for organizing a large response to world events. The trend lately in protest is not so much one organized group expressing dissent, but rather many groups coalescing around one general idea and then growing a protest movement through the social media. This shows hope for the sensible majority in the wake of First Contact. It seems likely that at first fringe elements would be speaking the loudest After First Contact. It could be necessary for the sensible majority to speak up with a collective voice to influence world leaders and keep the First Contact process moving forward in a positive way.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Secrecy

2011-11-21T06:38:00.003-06:00

It’s an essential question of any extraterrestrial First Contact scenario: disclosure. Do the people who make First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization tell the rest of the world? It’s easy to assume the inherent correctness of full disclosure. First Contact would change human history and it might be nice if all humans knew that it was occurring and perhaps had some say in how First Contact diplomacy progressed. Recently, a reader made a sound argument for keeping First Contact secret. The basic premise is that certain people in leadership positions should develop an action plan in secret, exploring the possibilities and negative impacts, before notifying the world. There are clear benefits to secrecy. Decisions can be made without the weight of public opinion and influence of potentially fractious public debate. Building a framework for diplomacy behind the scenes could help prevent panic. Humanity would be presented with a safe and controlled First Contact event, not one fraught with uncertainty and fear. Military leaders could asses threats and make preparations for defense. The group or nation in question could benefit from alien knowledge and prevent the release of technological information that could be dangerous in the wrong hands.

Allen Tough covered many of these ideas in a paper for Acta Astronatica in 1990 titled “A Critical Examination of Factors That Might Encourage Secrecy”.Tough breaks down the possible benefits of secrecy, including: prevention of panic, controlling the impact on our culture, and allowing one group to gain competitive advantage. However, he is clearly in favor of transparency. He refutes each of the reasons for secrecy and provides arguments for why transparency would be beneficial.

Panic is his first point. Some argue that the public will panic if information about First Contact is released without government control. Tough points to studies that show the majority of humans believe in extraterrestrial intelligence. Those studies also show that people would be inclined to handle the news with wonder, not panic. Popular fiction has certainly allowed us to play out the many possibilities and fears involved in extraterrestrial contact. It seems unlikely that the real thing will be anywhere near as dramatic as Hollywood portrayals. So, why panic?

The next point is impact on culture. Controlling the impact on our culture is more of a gatekeeping issue. The question is not whether the revelation of First Contact would change us, but rather that the information that could be revealed to us in a high-information First Contact scenario could affect us. Tough reasons that the scientific and other institutions that hold together our society are resilient and would be unlikely to crumble under the weight of high-information First Contact. While I can agree that we humans are a fairly adaptive lot, I do think that high-information First Contact would pose major challenges for our institutions- especially for the scientific and economic communities. I believe that some form of gatekeeping is essential when it comes to information provided to us in a First Contact situation.

Gatekeeping is a problematic issue. The very nature of gatekeeping means that someone must be privy to information that others are not. In a sense, in advocating for gatekeeping, you are advocating some degree of secrecy. I believe that information that could cause volatility to our economic and scientific systems must be carefully considered before release. That’s not to say I’m advocating for not releasing such information, but merely that we consider the consequences and look to alleviate the negative impact as much as is possible. That will require some group keeping matters secret for a period of time. The only way to make this transparent is to make the process of gatekeeping transparent. You admit there is information that is not being released. You give a timeline for when you will be able to release the information and you keep as much of the gatekeeping process in the public eye as is possible.

Tough points out that competition is another critical factor in secrecy. Researchers could seek to keep news of First Contact secret until they can develop the discovery and stake a bigger claim in the scientific history books. Still, it seems to me that the bigger question is of national control of First Contact news. If one nation discovers extraterrestrial intelligence, those leaders might hope to keep that discovery quiet. That would give them time to determine what technological information might be derived from the contact, giving that nation a very strong advantage in everything from military strength to economic power. Luckily, in a SETI based discovery there are likely to be teams of scientists involved in not only the discovery of a signal, but more importantly the confirmation of such a signal. SETI scientists already have a protocol for sharing information in order to confirm that a signal might actually have been created by extraterrestrial intelligence.

Keeping secrecy is not as easy as one might think. The United States couldn’t keep nuclear weapons technology secret in the 1940’s and 1950s. Many nations gained advantage through spy programs. With electronic communication those leaks are even more prevalent. Consider the primary revelation of the Wikileaks release of top secret military information. That top secret info that Wikileaks uncovered was actually available to tens of thousands of government employees. So, when the White House comes out and says they have no evidence that extraterrestrial intelligence exists or that any human has had contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, as they did recently, I believe them. It would be unlikely that any government could keep such information secret for long. This is especially true since the investigation of any extraterrestrial contact would require help from the scientific community and most scientists seem to agree that such First Contact should be a public concern, at least after such a signal is confirmed.

The biggest problem with secrecy is the long-term damage created by such a strategy. Trust will be a big issue in the wake of First Contact. Creating and keeping trust will be the only way to avoid fearful reactions and the development of wide-spread conspiracy theories. No matter how mentally prepared we think we are, in reality I think First Contact will create a feeling of vulnerability in various forms across human society. The only way to lessen fear and concern is through transparency. For that transparency to be effective it needs to start at the very beginning of First Contact and continue through the diplomatic process.

I have said it before, and I know I probably sound like a broken record: First Contact needs to be an open event for all nations and all of humanity. The information shared should be shared equally. The process developed for the international response needs to be protective of our society but also transparent and open to public debate.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Alien Agenda

2011-11-14T06:51:00.000-06:00

I know, I know…the phrase alien agenda sounds like a paranoid conspiracy theory worthy of a bad made for TV movie. In reality though, I think it’s something that needs to be taken seriously if high-information First Contact ever does occur. I bring up the concept of alien agenda in order to expand on the idea of First Contact motivation.

Motivation is something I have discussed frequently on this blog. If First Contact occurs because extraterrestrials are simply responding to our electromagnetic signals beaming through space, their only motivation might be to say hello. However, if an extraterrestrial civilization initiates First Contact there will probably be a more complex reason for them doing so. If they didn’t have a reason for contacting us, then they would simply leave us alone, which could very well be the current situation.

A motivation naturally leads to some sort of agenda for carrying out what they hope to accomplish with First Contact. Their objective, and the subsequent agenda of First Contact, could be quite benign. It could be a simple matter of scientific curiosity. They could also be trying to educate us, enlarge our perspective or make us aware of a danger. The agenda could be more controlling in nature. They may want to impact how we handle technology or treat our environment. Perhaps they think we should change our religions, or even our forms of government. How controlling are they? Do we consider it interference? How do we make sure we control the situation? What if we don’t agree with them? I think these are all legitimate questions in any First Contact scenario.

We can’t afford as a civilization to head into such a dramatic set of events in a naïve manner. Caution and careful consideration would be critical. True critical thinkers will of course point out that all of these possibilities are anthropomorphic. It’s quite possible that extraterrestrials would have a motivation, an objective and agenda that we cannot fathom. They might understand the universe in ways that we cannot even conceive of, and thus their motivation is beyond our comprehension.

So, do we give up and hide under the covers and hope that the aliens go away? I would be willing to bet that there are some in human society who actually suggest such a thing in the wake of First Contact. Clearly that isn’t a rational response. Once the veil is lifted humans will have no choice but to confront the challenges that come with First Contact. We can’t lose sight of the opportunities as well. While the alien agenda might seem negative in nature, it could just as well be positive. They may truly want to help us develop as a civilization and provide information that helps us better understand the physical world around us.

The only real solution to the alien agenda is questioning. We need to question every action and take a critical look at every step we take. It may not be rational to hide under the covers and hope they go away. It’s just as nuts to throw open our arms and let extraterrestrials do as they please. A little paranoia can go a long way.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Globalism and Conflict

2011-11-07T06:34:00.000-06:00

I think it’s safe to say that high-information First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization would change the future for humanity. The real question is how? Much of that would depend on the nature of the First Contact, the aliens themselves, their motives and perhaps most importantly, the type of information we receive. Just what would happen to our civilization would depend on a number of factors that are pure speculation on our part. There are reactions that we can better predict. They involve the very forces at work in human society today.

First Contact would present a great need for some sort of organized diplomacy on the part of the people of planet Earth. That would most likely occur at an international level. Right now, the only organization capable of carrying out such diplomacy would be the United Nations. All of this would lead to a conflict that I don’t think has been well-considered yet: globalists versus the opponents of globalism.

You probably don’t think of yourself as a globalist. It’s kind of an odd term in the first place. It is popular with some on the political right. It’s defined in many dictionaries as a national policy that treats the entire world as a sphere for political influence. Primarily this refers to the United States. However, it can also be defined as placing the interests of the entire world above those of individual nations. It is this meaning that is most often used by conservative thinkers. It represents a concern that the United Nations and other global bodies will lessen the power of the United States.

How does all of this tie into First Contact? Let’s ask American Free Press writer Keith Johnson, who writes about the spat of popular media coverage about a journal article exploring First Contact scenarios, some of them negative in outcome (covered here a few weeks ago). Johnson basically says that liberals are once again preaching doom, this time in the form of alien invasion, to bring about world government and ultimately take away our liberties. My apologies for linking to a news outlet that is considered extremist in viewpoint by many, but don’t get the impression that the fear of globalism is a fringe view. It’s become a rallying cry of the Tea Party movement. President Obama is routinely criticized for being a globalist. Presidential candidate Michelle Bachmann frequently rallies against globalism. It’s a popular subject for evangelical Christians, as pointed out in a recent Mother Jones article (I had to balance the Free Press link). The worry seems to be that world government is a sign of the apocalypse and part of a movement towards secularizing the world and destroying Christianity. The “Left Behind” series of books and movies are perhaps the best known examples of this concern. The stories portray the rise of the anti-Christ as the United Nations Secretary General, who is increasingly given more power due to dire world situations. Christians, who arrive at the notion too late to be part of the rapture, ban together on Earth to fight back.

Globalism often gets wrapped up with globalization, which is more commonly viewed as a process that is occurring in the world economy, as nations increase trade through the reduction of tariffs and restrictions. Globalization is perceived as a widespread action toward economic interdependence due to technology and international relations. Interestingly, many on the left also fear globalization, because they say it’s allowing multinational corporations to form alliances to control the world economy and create widespread economic disparity. The World Trade Organization, the World Monetary Fund, the G-8 and the G-20 are frequently cited as enabling this corporate power grab, and they are the subject of many protests by leftist organizations. It is one area in which the far left and the far right could perhaps agree: big government and big corporations are dangerous for individual liberties. Both try to limit the power of individuals to be successful and prosperous. I can’t say I disagree with those concerns. Globalization may be inevitable, but how that globalization occurs will be a significant question. The rights of individuals need to be protected. How far you take those views is what can make them fringe in nature.

Globalism is usually viewed as an active movement to strengthen international authority, and weaken individual nations, especially the United States. For the critics, it’s a big step towards the infringement of individual freedom. The religious right perceives globalism as similar to the growth of government in the United States. They see any big government as a threat to individual freedoms, and secular government in general as a threat to Christianity.

Let’s get back to the extraterrestrials. Ronald Reagan said it best:

“I occasionally think how quickly our differences, worldwide, would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world.”

President Reagan was speaking to the United Nations and while he was using the concept to make a larger point about the need for international cooperation, it’s an idea that makes sense. And it doesn’t have to be an aggressive alien threat. Just the fact that there is at least one other civilization out there in the Universe would naturally bring humans closer together. At first this might not seem like a controversial idea and I would expect it to be a common theme After First Contact. Once the surprise wore off though, I would imagine that the anti-globalists, and especially the evangelical Christian community, would begin to perceive a new threat.

You might say that this would merely be a fringe issue, with no bearing on world politics. However, I think it’s naïve to think that evangelical Christian philosophies are limited to fringe groups. There’s a good possibility that the next President of the United States will be an evangelical Christian (again). What would be the reaction of that evangelical Christian President to First Contact? Would he or she be able to separate religious views from practical politics? Would the result be outright hostility to alien visitors? Evangelical beliefs are held by many powerful members of congress. How would they react?

Any measure giving the United Nations power would be perceived as a threat. That would include giving them the power to lead diplomatic relations with extraterrestrials. It would certainly be considered a threat if the United Nations were to lead the gatekeeping effort for releasing extraterrestrial information.

Sorry, I know this sounds like conspiracy theory. It’s really not intended to be that at all. It’s a practical examination of how key groups in this country, and across the world, might react to extraterrestrial First Contact. It’s something that I don’t think has been discussed. First Contact needs to be considered in a real-world environment. Earth is a complicated place with many competing beliefs. I think there is a very good possibility that First Contact could set up a confrontation between people fearing globalism and those pushing for a world response to First Contact. Would it be possible for these two factions to find common ground? Perhaps. However, it could also lead to severe turmoil here on Earth. How severe might depend on who is leading the charge on both sides.

Do I consider myself a globalist? I certainly believe that a global response to any future extraterrestrial First Contact is the only logical response. It is ridiculous to think that every nation on Earth is going to somehow establish separate relations with extraterrestrials, by-passing the United Nations. Giving the United Nations more power would be fraught with challenges. The U.N. has not been a very effective body in its history thus far. Leading extraterrestrial diplomacy and contact would be a huge job for the U.N.

I don’t advocate world government and I share the concerns of those who worry about large government infringing on individual rights. Government can be stupid and big government really stupid. We need just enough government to have a cohesive, fair and productive society. Anything more can become intrusive and wasteful. Government must be watched closely, forced to be efficient and effective, and limited in both power and scope. It must not be allowed to take away from individuality and the power of people to join together in communities that they determine: neighborhoods, churches, organizations and advocacy groups.

We need people fighting for individual rights. The tug and pull of the left and the right in this country is a necessary and important part of our society. It’s when fringe elements on either side try to hijack the system for their own personal beliefs, and personal gains, that the system becomes distorted and ineffective. It will be up to the sensible majority to pull humanity through a time of great debate After First Contact. That sensible majority is usually quiet. They will need to stand up to be heard loud and clear in the wake of First Contact.The future of humanity will depend on it.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Distractions

2011-11-02T05:44:00.000-06:00

Timing is everything. That old saying may be a consideration for extraterrestrials debating the timing of contact with planet Earth. Timing is only a factor in First Contact if the extraterrestrials in question (and I’m not saying there actually are any extraterrestrials in question) are closely monitoring what humans are doing. This could be accomplished with some sort of probe connecting to our Internet. That may sound far-fetched, but if you, an extraterrestrial, had the technology to do such, why wouldn’t you? Monitoring human activity would allow you to know exactly what you are getting into, before you say hello.

So, back to timing. What factors might an extraterrestrial consider when deciding if and when to say hello? It seems to me that one consideration would have to be critical world events. An example is the recent negotiations in the European debt crisis. There were tense moments as the world economic community waited for word that European nations had agreed on important measures to bailout Greece and shore up the European monetary system. And there may be more tense moments to see if Greeks actually agree to the deal in an upcoming referendum. Extraterrestrials, with our best interests in mind, would probably want to avoid saying hello to humans at such important moments. The distraction caused by any First Contact, but especially a dramatic Direct First Contact event, would likely be enormous. What if European leaders were so distracted that they didn’t take the necessary measures to stabilize the European economy? Some may laugh and say that important world needs would still be important. I think that is a dangerous under estimation of the effect that Direct First Contact would have on the human civilization. There would most likely be a period of a stunned reaction that would bring most everything, except for basic functions, to a stop. Then there would be a period of intense debate over what actions to take in response to First Contact. Both of these periods would involve concentrated focus. And that means distraction and likely a very high degree of distraction, especially for world leaders. A signal discovered in space is certainly much less distracting and yet still a concern.

Distraction can of course be viewed in several other ways. Perhaps the extraterrestrials don’t have our best interest in mind at all? They could pick a critical moment to say hello in hopes of distracting us and causing harm to the planet. That seems like a rather round-about way of trying to harm humans. Creative extraterrestrials could probably come up with much more sinister ways to tear at the fabric of human civilization. It’s something that doesn’t seem likely if First Contact ever occurs, but certainly an idea that must be considered.

And then there is the beneficial distraction. Perhaps First Contact would be powerful enough to stimulate the world economy and help lift us out of global recession? It could take away attention from differences between nations and join us closer together. First Contact could be excellent motivation for global cooperation.

How long humans would remain distracted would depend on the type of First Contact and the actual nature of the events involved in that contact. Dramatic events would probably have a more distracting effect than a series of less dramatic events. You would imagine First Contact distraction would have an initial peak of effect, dissipating over time in strength. The toughest part of distraction is that when it’s occurring virtually no one is considering the impact- they’re simply distracted. Keeping a watchful eye on old worries and needful realities, in any First Contact situation, would seem prudent. Now let’s just hope that the Greeks can stay focused.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Time to Prepare

2011-10-31T07:27:00.000-06:00

Extraterrestrial First Contact ranges in impact from the least, an engineered signal being discovered, to the highest, in the form of Direct First Contact. Those two poles are also relevant in an examination of the time element in First Contact. By time element I mean the amount of time each scenario gives us to prepare our society and our institutions for the impact of First Contact.

The one end of the spectrum, discovery of an engineered signal, gives us the greatest time to prepare for impact, because it could take many years to decipher such a signal. Depending on the location of that signal it could take decades to send a signal in reply, if we should chose to do so. There would be much time to debate each step. The response would have time to develop organically.

Direct First Contact, an extraterrestrial civilization visiting Earth, provides no time to prepare and that would have major repercussions for our response. The lack of debate could cause a forced response, rather than an organic response, and easily lead to knee-jerk reactions. Those knee-jerk reactions could come in the form of an over-welcoming response, one that is not grounded in cautious, critical thinking. It could also lead to a hostile reaction, with too much worry and not much welcoming.

No matter what the type of First Contact, and how quickly a response must be developed, there are steps we will need to take:

-Appoint an organization or organizations to take the lead role in diplomacy and response

-Provide for international participation in that diplomacy and response

-Control the immediate situation and determine the most immediate needs

-Set up gatekeeping procedures for any information that might be received

-Develop an efficient bureaucracy to manage the response

-Create a framework for moving forward

-Develop a list of the most important considerations

-Bring in expertise to examine those considerations and provide recommendations

-Determine a method for making final decisions, while providing for as much global inclusion as possible

-Make sure that the process is transparent and open to all

-Determine, through gatekeeping, what information cannot be made open yet and develop a strategy to evaluate, act and then eventually make that information open for examination

-Bring in expertise to determine long-term impact

-Have a conversation about how First Contact could change humanity

-Make decisions about how we want to manage that change

-Develop long-term response strategies

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Media After First Contact

2011-10-24T06:46:00.003-05:00

Our understanding of the larger world depends greatly on the media. These days those media sources are numerous and growing. A recently released Pew Research Center study shows that Americans are now blending their news sources among many outlets, including television, online newspapers, web sites, and blogs.

I have advocated that television would be an excellent tool for visiting extraterrestrials in a dramatic Direct First Contact event. I know that sounds a bit “out there” but consider the advantages: Television has global reach, specializes in breaking news and live coverage and has a sharing network among news outlets unrivaled in the world. Clearly though, the type of coverage a Direct First Contact event received would change in the days and weeks following the initial event. Depending on how the event was to occur, coverage would begin to migrate from live to enterprise journalism. This is a natural cycle in the news business. When wildfires break out in a community, live coverage dominates at first. As the situation is eventually managed, the reporters begin to do enterprise stories focusing on the people impacted and critical pieces, such as determining the cause, the firefighting response and whether the proper precautions were taken to help prevent such fires.

One could expect that Direct First Contact coverage would move in the same way. The question is how those follow-up enterprise stories would be handled. The big difference between wildfires and extraterrestrials visiting Earth, aside from the scope of the story, is that wildfires are something we understand fairly well. First Contact would create all sorts of uncertainty. The media would need to look for experts and that’s probably a list they don’t have prepared. Hopefully, they would look in the right places and interview the folks from the SETI Institute, the International Astronomical Union or the other astrophysicists who have actively considered First Contact issues. Secondarily, there would be futurists and science fiction writers who have explored First Contact scenarios. Unfortunately though, there is a whole other group of writers who fall into what one might call the UFO community. I know it’s unfair to lump people together, but I think it’s safe to say that in any First Contact situation the UFO community will be extremely vocal. Because of the high degree of uncertainty in First Contact they may suddenly seem more credible to the mainstream media. If aliens do come to Earth to say hello or if we discover an engineered signal far off in space, doesn’t that lend some credibility to alien abduction theorists or those who believe we have been visited by aliens in the past? In all fairness, I think you would have to consider those questions in some fashion- the best way would of course be to ask the aliens themselves. Still, the effect that uncertainty has is to create a vacuum of information and usually people try to fill that vacuum with any information they can find. The UFO conspiracies would receive much more attention from the general public and the news media. The difference is the media, in the many forms it takes these days, has the ability to influence public perception. If they are chasing after every alien conspiracy theory that could have a dramatic impact on how people view extraterrestrials. It could lead to fear and knee-jerk reactions based on fear. I have said it before: I think there will be a vocal minority of isolationists that will be active in any First Contact situation. They will advocate for isolationism and suggest that we tell the aliens to leave us alone. How much steam this movement picks up will depend greatly on the media coverage. If the mainstream media gives such views quite a bit of attention, the number of people advocating isolationism will increase. If the media manages to realize the danger in chasing after every conspiracy theory, calmer heads might prevail.

In the end it comes down to two primary points: critical thinking and credibility. We will need to utilize critical thinking in the wake of First Contact. This includes the news media. Plenty of tough questions will need to be asked. Any information provided to us by extraterrestrials would need to be carefully weighed. However, credibility will be essential. The media will need to realize that crack-pots before First Contact could still very well be crack-pots After First Contact. Just because their subject matter turned out to have some basis in truth (aliens do exist) doesn’t mean that everything else they advocate is true (aliens kidnapped my cousin Earl and he was forced to mate with them).

Is the collective global media up to the task of critical thinking? Well, perhaps some outlets. Others, one would imagine, will go crazy with fear-mongering, headline-grabbing stories just to get attention. It will be up to news consuming public to decide who they will trust. The sensible majority will need to stand up and be counted.

Extraterrestrial Contact Scenarios: Getting Beyond the Media Hype

2011-10-17T06:27:00.001-05:00

As usual, the media distillations of journal articles are rarely a good judge of the actual content of the article in question. Such is the case with the media hubbub caused by the article in Acta Astronautica by Baum, Haqq-Misra and Domagal-Goldman titled “Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis.”

While Acta Astronautica requires a subscription, Dr. Baum has now placed the article on his website. It’s a worthy read for many reasons. As I have discussed before, the article is a series of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) First Contact scenarios, organized according to the possible impact on humanity. It’s loosely divided into categories: negative, positive and neutral. Most of the scenarios might seem quite familiar: ETI that enslaves us; outright destruction of Earth by ETI; helpful ETI that helps us solve problems; ETI that ignores us; ETI that spreads biological threat etc. The media had a field day with the negatives and the right-leaning media had fun with the scenarios that were based on environmental concerns. The primary ecological scenario involves ETI destroying us because of what we are doing to our environment and what we might do to the rest of the galaxy. Snickering media or not, it’s an interesting set of questions: at what point would ETI consider us a threat and what might they do to eliminate the threat?

Yet, it’s the extrapolation behind the rather general scenarios that provides the real meat to the article. The authors raise the idea that ETI might have a diverse population making up their civilization, with many competing, and perhaps conflicting, cultures and views. This possibility of ETI heterogeneity is of course based on our only possible study group: humans. If we were to land on another planet and meet another civilization, it seems likely that there would be a raging debate over what we should do. Some may advocate taking any advantage we can get. Others might say that we should have a policy of non-interference and only study the newly discovered civilization. So, if that’s how humans would react, who’s to say an extraterrestrial civilization visiting Earth wouldn’t have exactly the same situation? The authors point out that power shifts and changes in attitudes in ETI leadership could be dangerous for humans. We could receive mixed signals from competing ETI interests. This is an important point and it examines First Contact with a complexity that I think has been lacking. It seems likely that extraterrestrial First Contact will be extremely complex and nuanced, perhaps in ways that we do not understand at first.

Baum, et al. tackle many of what I would call the more subtle scenarios. Hollywood is fixated with marauding aliens or beneficent ones. In reality, the reaction of humans could be the most significant concern in a First Contact scenario. The authors point out that the detection of ETI could make existing conflicts here on Earth much worse, as nations compete for control. Religious groups could find a challenge to their beliefs and react quite negatively and perhaps even violently.

There is a primary way that Baum, et al. seek to define ETI: Universalist versus selfish. What this means for us would seem clear at first glance, but once again the authors examine the shadings of these definitions. For example, ETI could seek to destroy us for Universalist reasons- they want to save the rest of the galaxy from us. I would provide additional shading to the selfish end of the spectrum, not examined in the paper. Perhaps we offer ETI something significant that would not require our destruction. Perhaps it is in their best interest to befriend us?

The authors call for more in-depth study in their conclusion. With any scenario being possible and no data of any sort, it’s quite difficult to put together a quantitative risk analysis. However, they argue that we should work in that direction, as it would prove invaluable in the case of First Contact. They call for a development of scenarios, free from pre-conceived notions about what we expect ETI to be like. They also suggest that we should carefully consider whether we should send signals into space or respond to an engineered signal that we might find.

I would agree that caution and careful consideration are essential parts of any response to any type of First Contact. We quite simply have not examined this issue enough. The existence of ETI may be completely unknown to us now, but if we do discover an extraterrestrial civilization, the impact to humanity could be dramatic.

Who Reads This Blog?

2011-10-12T06:20:00.001-05:00

You, my reading friends, are a very small group. This blog is a bit odd and I think it tends to alienate (pun fully intended) the two largest groups of potential readers. The UFO community doesn’t seem to like it much, primarily because I don’t believe that there is any evidence that aliens have visited, or are visiting Earth. I think that what is being currently presented as evidence is not real evidence. The scientific community, for whom I have immense respect for their efforts and incredible achievements, tends to shy away from this blog because of my focus on Direct First Contact, which is arguably the least likely form of First Contact, should it ever occur.

That’s fine. I don’t mind chatting with a small group. I am fascinated by a few things about you, the readers. First, you are an international group. From the time I installed Google analytics on the blog, a few years ago; it has received hits from 112 different nations. Most readers are in the United States and Europe. The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Poland, Germany, Finland, India, Brazil and Ireland make up the top ten nations. And this part is perhaps the most interesting to me: China, the most populous nation on the Earth, has exactly one page view, out of Shanghai, in all of those years. Are the Chinese just not interested in this subject? Or perhaps they are blocked from being able to search about this subject? I’m not sure why the Chinese government would care enough to block viewing. Who knows? Interesting, though.

A few locations stand out as regular readers: Hello Rohnert Park, California, Lambeth, England and lately Stuttgart, Germany. And also a shout out to long-time readers in Georgia and Utah. I thank all of you for taking the time to read and I encourage you to chime in on the comments. They are open to everyone.

Welcome.

Good Guys or Bad Guys?

2011-10-10T06:37:00.012-05:00

A recent opinion column in the New York Times by Gary Gutting, a professor of philosophy at the University of Notre Dame, points to a serious concern that people have about contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. The primary questions are simple: would extraterrestrials be good guys or bad guys and do we really want to risk the bad guy scenario?

The debate is not new, however it has become re-energized with statements by Stephen Hawking and a recent study published in Acta Astronautica by a group of researchers postulating possible First Contact scenarios.

The possibility that aliens might be harmful to the human race must be considered. However, I would urge a more thoughtful approach to the debate. Perhaps we should take a look at the only civilization we currently know: humans. Let’s say that we develop space faring technology some day and travel to another planet. What type of extraterrestrial visitors would we be? Of course, John Cameron took his stab at the idea with Avatar. Science fiction writers have been exploring the topic for decades. The answer those authors usually come up with is based on the reality of humanity: we are neither good guys nor bad guys; we’re a mixed up, confusing, stew of good and bad intentions, and good and bad actions. Sometimes we think we’re doing something good and it goes terribly wrong. Humanity is complicated and often difficult to understand. I think we are naïve to expect aliens to be any different. They are likely to have motives that we might consider to be good and others that we might not like at all. Perhaps the most dangerous situation would occur if they have motives with good intentions that lead to bad consequences for us. It might be hard for us to recognize the danger because of the good intentions.

No matter how long a visiting extraterrestrial civilization might have been studying us, they would be relative novices at dealing with the human race, assuming that the First Contact in question is their first attempt. That means that they would not fully understand our society or how we might react to First Contact. Even worse, because of our lack of serious consideration of the issue, we would not be able to predict how we might react to First Contact. There would be a high degree of uncertainty for all parties involved. There is always risk inherent in uncertainty.

So, if aliens present themselves do we collectively turn off the lights and hide behind the couch? Of course not. We do what humans have done from the beginning. We move forward cautiously. We use reasoning and critical thinking to set a course. We learn from our mistakes. We analyze, make decisions and adjust our path. We keep moving forward. It is what humans do and it is what we will need to do in the wake of First Contact.

Higher, Higher Education

2011-10-03T06:49:00.001-05:00

High-information First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization presents many challenges. One would expect that aliens with advanced technology would easily be able to communicate in our languages. In a Direct First Contact scenario, you would assume that they would have done research to figure out who we are and how our cultural, governmental and scientific institutions work. If their motives are altruistic, the primary reason for offering us information would be, presumably, to help us along. However, we can’t assume altruism, even that’s what they profess. A healthy dose of critical thinking would be essential in our decision making.

The first challenge would be the nature of the information itself. If our new alien friends are thousands, if not millions, of years in advance of us in terms of technology, understanding their social and scientific systems could be complicated, if not impossible. The only solution would be for the extraterrestrials to act as teachers. They would have to integrate their knowledge with our way of thinking and our current development. In more blunt terms: they would have to dumb it down for us.

High-information contact provides plenty of opportunity, but it also presents clear dangers. It could cause hostilities here on Earth as countries fight to take advantage. It could leave third world nations even further behind in development, as they lack the scientific structure to take advantage of such information. Without control, alien information could lead to dangerous new weapons and encourage us to create technology that is damaging in ways we might not be able to foresee.

The biggest challenge comes in devising a system that might work for such a teaching experience, that can also be controlled to protect us. Gatekeeping is probably the best method for high-information dissemination. The first gatekeeping would have to be done by the extraterrestrials themselves. They would need a plan to educate us without endangering us. Once they have determined what information they are willing to share and how they might teach us that information, it would be up to us to decide who leads the human part of the effort. One could imagine a system of higher, higher education. It would need to be conducted in specific academic areas, let’s say biology, for example. You could gather 40 of the top scientists in the field of biology and they could be taught the basics of alien biology and what aliens know about manipulating biological systems. Biology is a very wide field, with many specialties. However, being general at first would be important. We would want to start at a macro level, with experts representing the many specific specialties within biology, and then have more teaching sessions in those specific areas. Working from a macro to micro view would be important. We would have to understand the big picture of the alien knowledge system before we could hope to understand specifics.

Another challenge comes in deciding who gets to be in this prestigious group of scientists. Needless to say, membership in the exclusive club would be highly prized. More so, nations would consider it a necessity to have their scientific leaders involved in such efforts. That presents an even bigger problem: the pressure on scientists to share information with their country, exclusive to the rest of the world. There would be immense pressure on a Chinese or American scientist to make sure that what he or she learns would be brought back to their government to help in technological developments. This would be especially significant in physics and other scientific areas that could have a bearing on weaponry and space travel. So how do you prevent the teaching system from becoming an information grab by powerful nations? How do you ensure that the top scientific minds are in those valuable higher, higher education seats, without leaving the rest of the world behind and providing unfair advantage?

Selection could come based on a formula decided by some outside system. One possibility: each of the G20 nations could select one scientific representative. However, that could leave some top scientific minds out of the picture. Perhaps the other 20 members of the higher, higher education group could be chosen by a non-profit group representing that area of scientific study? In our biology example the group leading the selection could be the Society of Biology. With 80,000 members it represents many of the world experts in biology. Clearly the selection of the group would be controversial and there would be much debate. The Society of Biology was created in Great Britain and Russian scientists might see this as not representative of the larger world group. IEEE is another possibility for such an organization dealing with engineering information. It has 395,000 members in 160 countries in fields ranging from electrical engineering to robotics and computing.

The groups would need to be non-profit and not controlled by industry or government. They would have to be true scientific communities, with members from many different countries and well-respected within the academic field.

Once the 40 scientific representatives are chosen they would attend class of some sort, probably needing to last many months or years. This would be a critical juncture. There would have to be absolute secrecy as they are being taught. A member who fed juicy information back to their home country, or perhaps a corporation, could cause major global turmoil. The group of scientists would have to do more than just learn. They would have to decide how the particular information could be aligned with our current knowledge. They would also need to consider the implications of dissemination. Would the information provoke major disruptions in our global economic system? How would academia incorporate the new information? The scientists would need to work with human gatekeepers in deciding how the information should be released and make preparations for reactions to the news. This would have to be done behind closed doors at first. However, it would be important to document everything, including all of the classes and each step in the decision making process. When the proper precautions had been taken and a plan put together, then everything could be released to the public. All of the information that the extraterrestrial teachers provide would become common human knowledge. In this way, there is no unfair advantage. Gatekeepers might have to work with nations to set up treaties and controls for usage of new technology. Perhaps it is realized that specific information could be used to create weapons, or if not carefully pursued, present a physical risk of some sort. Some global group or world body would need to oversee such treaties to make sure they are being followed.

If this sounds like an unwieldy and complicated structure, I agree. But it would be necessary. Humans have often considered the positive aspects of high-information First Contact. We tend to be naïve in our thinking, dwelling on the exciting benefits that might be derived from gifts of knowledge. Such thinking belies the true nature of human civilization. We strive for advantage and support our own interests. It is part of human nature. Even the best of intentions are often wrapped up in self-interest.

There have been very few in-depth considerations of just how high-information dissemination might work. I know that it seems crazy to discuss the specific elements of something that might never occur. We may be very alone in the universe. However, if we do experience high-information First Contact, the plan of action for information dissemination may be the most important series of decisions in the history of humanity.

A Decision to Interfere

2011-09-26T06:53:00.001-05:00

Let’s say that an extraterrestrial civilization was watching and studying humans as we scurry around on planet Earth (and I'm not saying they are). What might cause them to reconsider a hands-off policy and decide that intervention, through Direct First Contact, was necessary?

This, of course, depends on their reason for studying us in the first place. Are they just scientific minded (in an alien sort of way)? Or perhaps they want to help us along and have good intentions for human civilization? They could also have ill will towards us of some sort? The motivation for First Contact is essential in any scenario. It ultimately would direct how they might respond.

So perhaps they do have our best interests at heart. What might cause them to step out of the wings and say hello? If they really do care what happens to us, then perhaps it would come down to what they think might happen to human civilization in event of First Contact. From our extremely limited perspective it could certainly appear that western civilization is on the ropes and democracy is facing a huge challenge. Will our economic woes lead to the failure of the American dream? Do the aliens even give two damns about the American dream? Who’s to say the Chinese model doesn’t make more sense to them? But let’s say they do care about democracy and the freedom of the individual being. What would provoke them to say hello?

I can think of a number of reasons they may want to do contact us. The first would be to shock our economic system back to life. If the U.S. economy goes flatline, the mere appearance of extraterrestrials could jump start the global economy. Suddenly, there would be all sorts of economic opportunities. Investors might see a reason to re-enter the market to try and capitalize on what could be the next big things: space development and cutting edge technologies. Banks could be more likely to loan money as new ideas enter our system. A little alien information could be a big boost to the faltering world economy. The next reason could be that extraterrestrials do give a damn about individual liberty and freedom of information. As many problems as we have in the United States, we have about the best system on the planet for continuing these human freedoms. Extraterrestrials may not be American supporters per se, but they could support the ideals we stand for, no matter how much we might trample them ourselves. The third reason could be to interject themselves into a larger philosophical war, one that we can’t fully see, due to our limited perspective. The rise of religious fundamentalism is a global phenomenon. It’s happening all over the world, including in Muslim, Jewish and Christian sects. Perhaps there is a larger battle occurring between secular-scientific thought and regressive religious thought, and perhaps they are worried about how it might turn out for us?

Much of this line of thought is wishful thinking on our part. It would be swell to have extraterrestrials come and help us solve our problems. There have certainly been points in human history where civilization was much more endangered. World War Two and the Cuban Missile Crisis are two examples. Aliens didn’t show up then, so why should they now?

It could be that from the alien perspective it’s not so much a case of humanity on the ropes and needing help, as it is humanity in an important phase of development. Despite world economic woes our technology has drawn us together, the threat of all-out nuclear war has lessened considerably in recent years and we are showing signs of greater global cooperation. Maybe we’re ready and that is their only consideration? They may have just been waiting for us to grow up.

Economic Interests and Control After First Contact

2011-09-19T06:43:00.002-05:00

In a high-information First Contact scenario there would be plenty of money-making opportunities. New information can lead to new technology. New technology means profit, and in the case of extraterrestrial information, potentially huge profit. Now an extraterrestrial civilization may not want to share much, if anything, with us about science and technology. But even if they offer only minimal information that we can use, it is bound to have a massive impact on the world economy. For the most part I have ruminated over the potential challenges that information would create here on Earth from a governmental and institutional perspective. Blog reader Geoffrey has inspired a new line of thinking lately. He recently posted in response to the declaration of human rights entry I made several months ago- my rather naïve set of statements that I think we need to consider expressing to any extraterrestrials we might meet. My concern, as far-fetched as it may sound, has been extraterrestrial meddling in the human civilization After First Contact. Geoffrey thought it was interesting that we would ask more of the aliens than we do of humans. He is worried, as are most Americans these days, about recent economic turmoil and the underlying reasons for that turmoil. In particular, he points out that many self-interested groups have been manipulating the American financial system for their own benefit and to the detriment of the country as a whole. I agree with him in that assessment. I think that no matter what your political inclinations, most Americans could agree that decisions have been made, in terms of banking, trading and financial regulation, that have benefited a powerful few, while leaving the rest of us with dwindling 401-K plans, if we’re lucky, and unemployment and financial collapse if we are not so lucky.

It does beg the question. What would the powerful cadre of investment bankers, speculators and corporate leaders do in the event of First Contact?

I think that there would be two corporate reactions. The first would be much the same as the general global response- a period of being stunned. I doubt there is one major company on the planet that has considered how to respond to extraterrestrial information. Why should they? Right now it appears that there are no extraterrestrials for us to contact and if there are they could be hundreds of light years away.

The surprise of an extraterrestrial contact event would soon wear off and companies would start considering how to respond. On the speculation side of things, the stock market may reflect this reaction quite quickly as investors try to decide which businesses are likely to capitalize on extraterrestrial relations and information. Of course, until we know what information they would be interested in sharing with us it would be tough to decide who is likely to profit from extraterrestrial information. Perhaps the wisest investment would be with the companies supporting robust research and development wings, particularly in physics. Aerospace might be another logical choice. Even if the extraterrestrials would not be thrilled about sharing their interstellar travel technology, humans would most likely want to invest in satellites and other space monitoring technology for defense and science. We would suddenly be aware that there is much more out there than meets the eye and we would be keen to know more, both for safety and knowledge. Space will suddenly become the hottest frontier for corporate interests and for speculators.

All of this is expected and welcome in a free market. China and Russia would be sure to respond as well, and once again that is beneficial to the global economy. One positive outcome of First Contact could be a stimulating of the world economy. Needless to say, we could certainly use stimulation. Such a rush of new opportunities could also cause investment banks to loosen up the purse strings and start loaning out the piles of cash they are sitting on.

The real issue comes in the long-term. The development of legitimate business would be fine. What happens along the way could be the problem. Regulating information flow so that everyone on Earth has an equal chance in responding to opportunities would be essential. Big business may attempt to tie such opportunities to defense related industries and thus keep some development top-secret. There would likely be all sorts of efforts to take advantage of the new situation. This is a plain fact of a free-market society: big business is tied closely to governmental leaders and corporations spend a great deal of money, time and effort lobbying to make sure they get an inside track in anything that involves the government. Any attempts to coral extraterrestrial information and keep it available to only a privileged few would be detrimental to the global economy and, needless to say, morally wrong. It may sound like a speculative conspiracy theory, but I think we have all been naïve about how the financial game is actually played. Whether or not extraterrestrial information could be kept for a select few would be dependent on the type of First Contact, who that contact is with (government, media, and scientists) and of course what the aliens decide they want to do. After all, it’s their information and ultimately they would be in control.

Then there’s the flipside- corporate interests arguing for a free flow of information. I have said for some time that gatekeepers of some sort will be critical for information flow After First Contact. I think regulating information flow will be important to help us decipher that extraterrestrial information and make sure it doesn’t erode the foundations of our social, civic and scientific institutions.

I think an interesting and unusual alliance could be forged between free speech/open sourceware/free Internet folks and big business. If we do assign gatekeepers to control information flow After First Contact, both of those interests would be upset. They would want as much information as possible to be released, although the two groups would have very different motives. Big business will want as much opportunity as possible and that would come through information about the sciences and technology. They would likely be opposed to gatekeeping on a purely economic basis. The freedom of information folks will be upset that anyone is controlling information flow. This unholy alliance of freedom of information and big business would probably never gel as a concerted, joined effort, but the primary argument would be the same.

No one nation, or bloc of nations, should be allowed to control information After First Contact. It should be a global effort, involving all nations and with protections to make sure the powerful countries don’t subvert the process for their own interests. Transparency in process would be essential.

Any information that comes to humans from extraterrestrials would have to be considered a gift to all humans. However, that information flow needs to be controlled to help protect our institutions from being harmed. It will probably take quite a bit of work to even understand alien thought and logic, let alone decipher scientific ideas. The key is to set up gatekeepers who will not be subject to national or business pressure. Those gatekeepers would need to have careful oversight. And the entire process would need to be transparent to the point of causing boredom. Every meeting must be streamed on the Internet. Every decision should be tracked and monitored. The gatekeeping process would likely need a bureaucracy of huge proportions. I personally hate bureaucracy, but sometimes it’s necessary. It doesn’t have to be inefficient and ineffective bureaucracy. That will be up to us.

Humans or the Birds and Bees?

2011-09-12T06:39:00.000-05:00

It’s easy for us to view our planet as the home of humans, but what about small mouth bass, golden retrievers, honey bees, red-tailed hawks and iguanas? Humans are just one of about two million known species on Earth, according to the National Science Foundation “Assembling the Tree of Life” project. That’s just known species. The actual figure could be five to 100 million different species on Earth. So, what makes us think that extraterrestrials would only be interested in humans?

This thought comes thanks to a classic book, Carl Sagan’s Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective. Sagan points out that we assume extraterrestrials would only be interested in intelligent life on Earth. Even that assumption leaves out dolphins and a whole lot of intelligent primates. One would imagine that visiting extraterrestrials would want to communicate with humans, but they could also be interested in a much wider range of life on Earth.

I find myself re-reading Sagan, every now and then, to reconnect with the wonder of extraterrestrial considerations. While parts of the science he explores in the book have moved on in the last 20 years, the over-arching themes are timeless. We bring a lot of assumptions to extraterrestrial First Contact speculation. Anthropocentricism is perhaps the biggest and it occurs in much of our logic. If extraterrestrials did view all beings on Earth as important they might hold us in contempt for the way we treat the natural world. Humans have spread across the globe in a relatively short time span, upending entire ecosystems and forcing some species into extinction along the way. We demand much of the planet. Could that fact become an issue in future extraterrestrial relations? My vegetarian wife would certainly snicker if the extraterrestrials looked down on our meat eating ways. Of course it’s hard to say realistically how extraterrestrials could form relationships with whales or spiders. Still, they might respect life forms in a way we don’t fully understand. And as in all speculation there is the flip-side: they could also not give a damn about anything with an IQ lower than a chimp.

It’s all certainly worth pondering and there’s no one better to ponder with than Carl Sagan.

What Technology Demands of Our Society

2011-09-05T06:36:00.001-05:00

We like to think of technology as providing tools for us to use. While humans do control technology, the growth also creates technological demands and institutional challenges. The most striking example is information technology. The demands and challenges are becoming more apparent daily.

Information is becoming democratized. Transparency is becoming a technological imperative. The complexity of the networks involved and the vast numbers of people with access to those networks are only part of the story. Many of the people who worked to create those networks have an ethos that believes strongly in transparency and free access. It’s what has helped keep so much of the internet free. Open source software and wikis are examples of how this philosophy has helped to drive the nature of our modern information technology.

People are using communication technology to band together in new ways, outside of the usual institutions of governments, religion and media. In Egypt it helped to fuel a revolution. The transparency that technology creates is becoming harder and harder for traditional institutions to squelch. The Chinese government had another reminder of the power of social media recently. People posted more than 26 million messages to a Chinese Twitter-like microblog called Sina Weibo, full of information about a high-speed train accident that the authorities had tried to prevent from being released.

Twitter, Facebook, and You Tube are just the latest trends. Wikileaks is an example of where things might be headed. The release of millions of pages of top-secret government documents from many nations was aided by a sophisticated system of servers, protected networks and technically savvy activists. It showed that the technology we have come to rely on can be used in ways that many people might disagree with.

Transparency, no matter how much it is given lip-service by politicians, flies directly in the face of bureaucracy as we have known it for hundreds of years. Usually bureaucracy is controlled by a few and access is tightly restricted. When it protects our social security numbers and medical records we seem to appreciate such restriction. Transparency creates a disruption in the fundamental protective and restrictive nature of institutions. We may applaud the use of technology when it creates revolution in a dictatorship. When it jeopardizes the lives of soldiers, or threatens our collective interest, transparency takes on a dangerous tone.

Technology is proving more powerful than censorship and governments will need to realize this to stay relevant, and in power, in the next 50 years. The human race tends to move in fits and starts culturally. Our technology, however, is skyrocketing with new developments and new possibilities. Governments and other organizations will have to work hard to keep up and stay in control.

The demands of technology will only grow. The transparency movement may continue in ways far beyond our current imagining. If a technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilization was watching this unfold they would probably view such developments with great interest. They may have already experienced where we are ultimately headed and have an understanding of the dangers along the way.

The Greatest Gift for Humanity

2011-08-29T06:35:00.001-05:00

Let’s face it: the happy view of extraterrestrial First Contact is a bit like waiting for Santa Claus. The more optimistic among us hope that extraterrestrials would shower us with knowledge, not only answering the mysteries of the universe, but also solving our energy and environmental problems. What we could gain from communication with an extraterrestrial civilization, as well as what could be jeopardized by that relationship, are matters of pure speculation. There is one thing that we could count on, and quite frankly it might be the greatest possible gift of all: new perspective.

Many of the problems facing humanity today are global problems. We’re about to hit a population of seven billion people and that’s expected to jump to 9.3 billion humans in 2050, according to new projections by researchers using United Nations data.

Extraterrestrial First Contact would give us new awareness of the fact that we are really a single civilization made up of many nations and cultures. The only way for a planet with seven billion people to move forward, especially given the challenges that all those people create, is as a single entity with closely interconnected systems of government, finance and science. Those interconnected systems are developing now and in ways we never could have imagined 50 years ago. Technology is the catalyst for this change, lead by communications and information infrastructure. Where we take it though, is up to the cultural institutions in our civilization. The heads of nations and our other cultural institutions need to have the vision to see where we are headed and prepare now for that future.

The best part of the greatest gift is that we can find that new perspective right now. We don’t have to wait for extraterrestrials to show up on our doorstep, if they even exist at all. Awareness can come now. It comes down to this: we are one planet, one people- citizens of the universe.

Humanity in Adolescence

2011-08-25T07:26:00.000-05:00

It would be interesting to see what people think of the pre-First Contact world if First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization ever does occur. I would think that we might view pre-contact times with a bit of nostalgia, yearning for the relatively carefree days when we were safe in our little bubble, with no reason to think that there was anything or anyone out there to bother us. This may sound a bit pessimistic, but you would imagine that After First Contact humanity will be facing many challenges and potentially global unrest in many forms.

In a sense, humanity is like a teenager getting ready to leave home for the first time. First Contact would force human civilization to grow up quickly. We would expand our perspective and perhaps face some unpleasant truths about the universe. It’s unlikely to be all good news coming from extraterrestrials. Judging from our own world, the wider universe is likely to be volatile and complicated. Entering into that wider universe will be exciting, challenging, and probably scary, all at the same time.

Will we cherish remembrances of our days of ignorance? Will we long for the times when our major concerns were terrorism and economic turmoil? It sounds crazy in our current perspective, but First Contact could bring challenges much, much greater than these and may exasperate the aforementioned problems greatly. I hate to say it, but First Contact could make things much worse in the short-term for humanity. If we can get through the initial unrest and emerge on a firm path, with a clear direction and steady hands, hopefully the situation will improve and allow us to enter into a new era in human history as jaded and experienced young adults and no longer naïve teenagers.

The Role of the United Nations in First Contact

2011-08-22T06:47:00.001-05:00

The United Nations Charter states the purpose of the organization. That purpose includes maintaining international peace and security and achieving international cooperation in solving international problems. First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization would create a unique set of challenges. The primary issues would be those of peace and security. The long-term challenge would be solving the problems created by First Contact and establishing the path to a new era of extraterrestrial diplomacy and relations. The UN clearly should have a leadership role in First Contact and a continuing leadership role in future extraterrestrial relations.

I believe that the importance of the UN in First Contact applies to every possible scenario, from scientists discovering a mysterious and cryptic engineered signal, to high information First Contact and even further to Direct First Contact. The one end of the spectrum, discovery of a signal, would allow more time for deliberation and consideration. Direct First Contact, an extraterrestrial representative visiting Earth, would require a rapid response and a solid framework of diplomacy.

The UN has six primary parts. They include the General Assembly, Security Council and Secretariat. The first group that would need to consider First Contact issues would be the Security Council. This body is charged with determining threats to international peace and maintaining international peace and security. No matter what the form of First Contact security is the primary issue at hand. How immediate the threat depends on the type of First Contact and that’s directly tied to proximity. Discovery of a signal is low on the threat level because the alien civilization is most likely many light years away. Direct First Contact has a high degree of threat. Calling the Security Council the first stop for First Contact issues may seem paranoid or unfriendly. However, it’s really a completely logical decision. We would have no information to guide us in First Contact and no experience to help us decide what kind of a threat an extraterrestrial civilization might represent. The threat may not even come from the extraterrestrials themselves, but rather in our reaction. It’s necessary to take any possible threats quite seriously and respond appropriately. The Security Council would need to determine the possible threats, bring together nations as part of a coordinated response and set forth conditions of security that visiting extraterrestrial representatives would be asked to follow. A knee-jerk military response could be disastrous. Having an organized international response would help keep individual nations from acting on their own.

One could argue that setting guidelines for alien visitors would be a bit ridiculous, given that their level of technology would likely be much greater than ours. Still, nuclear weapons do provide some muscle and asking extraterrestrial visitors to follow conservative guidelines for contact does not seem like an unreasonable request. What should we say? Here are some ideas:

-No craft should visit Earth without the approval of the United Nations.

-No use of stealth or cloaking technology for any space or aircraft in Earth atmosphere or our solar system.

-No corruption or manipulation of our secure systems of communication, information and technology.

-No contact with other humans without approval of the United Nations or assigned governing body.

-A promise of non-interference in Earth governments and other social systems.

-Complete transparency in actions and motives.

These requests are reiterated in this Declaration of Human Rights

1. Humans have the right to self-determination.

2. Humans have a right to not be manipulated by other civilizations.

3. Humans have a right to keep the pillars of human society free of manipulation by other civilizations. Those pillars include government, economy, technology, and civic arrangements.

4. The planet Earth is the sacred home of human beings.

5. Life on Earth should not be interfered with or manipulated by outside beings.

6. Humans have a right to determine how First Contact proceeds.

7. Humans should determine what type of information they want to receive about the outside universe and the method of dissemination.

8. The resources of the planet Earth are the property of citizens of Earth.

9. The solar system of Earth is the property and home of citizens of Earth.

10. Humans can decide which beings can enter their solar system and under what conditions.

11. Humans can decide which beings can enter Earth atmosphere and under what conditions.

12. Humans will enter into the larger known universe as productive and responsible citizens.

13. Humans will decide exactly how that entry into the larger known universe proceeds.

14. Humans will expect honesty from all parties interacting with the citizens of planet Earth.

15. Humans will demand honesty and forthright disclosure of any past interactions between alien civilizations and people of the planet Earth.

The Security Council would also need to be responsible for taking the initial steps in coordinating the official welcome. This would ultimately fall to the Secretariat in planning and organization. The Secretariat carries out the day-to-day functions and actions of the United Nations. The welcome itself would reasonably be expected to be given to the General Assembly, the body that provides representation for nations on Earth. A welcome from an extraterrestrial contingent should be made to all nations and the General Assembly would provide the means to do so.

There are two sub-sets of the United Nations that should be involved in the initial diplomatic needs of First Contact. The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) is the only body charged with consideration of space related matters. While the focus has been on controlling armament issues in Earth orbit and outer space, the group also has a role in determining possible threats from Near Earth Objects. They are the only committee that has a role in extraterrestrial issues.

The specific group working under the COPUOS umbrella is the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). The office was initially created to provide expertise on space related matters. They are now charged with implementing the decisions of COPUOS and the General Assembly. First Contact response by the international community would be an incredibly complicated effort, involving many groups and spanning a broad swath of human society. However, it has to start somewhere and the only group set up to consider such issues is UNOOSA. The current director, Malaysian Astrophysicist Mazlan Othman, has considered First Contact issues and seems to understand the need for United Nations involvement.

There are those who would dispute the notion that the United Nations is the appropriate body to lead efforts in response to First Contact. This seems an arguable point now in pure speculation and yet when faced with the actual prospect I can’t imagine the argument would continue to hold weight. First Contact has inherent threat, both from the motives of the extraterrestrials and in the reactions here on Earth. To respond as a bunch of independent nations, each with a different voice and a different message seems foolish and dangerous. The United Nations is the only body that currently exists that can carry out the necessary coordinated response. I would imagine there will still be a great deal of debate among nations in regards to how diplomacy proceeds After First Contact. The UN would provide the ability to hear those differences and develop a plan of action. All of humanity has the right to participate in this process and the United Nations provides representation to do such.

A leadership role for the UN does not mean that other groups and organizations will be left on the sidelines. The scientific community is represented by a number of organizations that should work closely with the UN in guidance. The International Academy of Astronautics, NASA and the SETI Institute are just a few examples. The UN will need the help. The organization has done little to prepare for First Contact issues. The expertise lies with the scientific community and the small group of astrophysicists and other researchers who have taken the matter seriously.

In the long-term there would probably need to be changes in the nature of the United Nations, especially in terms of organization and scope. Those changes may need to be quite substantive. Still, the effort must start somewhere and the UN is the only group that can respond to the initial needs and challenges of First Contact.

Breaking News: Media Make Funny Alien Headlines!

2011-08-20T10:00:00.000-05:00

It’s been a good week for extraterrestrials in the media. Two big stories made headlines. The first, discussed here last week, was news that the SETI Institute has raised enough funds to re-start work with the Allen Telescope Array. The interesting aspect of the media coverage is just how widespread it has been. Seth Shostak has been highlighting a few of the articles on his facebook page.

My Google search shows more than 500 media hits for the story. Much of that was aided by news that Hollywood star Jodie Foster helped to raise funds and awareness for the problem. She is a SETIStar (I’m one as well) which is just the SETI Institute branding for donors to the project. They even e-mail you a nice certificate. Here’s hoping all of this extra attention can bring in even more donations and keep the Allen Telescope Array up and running for years to come. The SETI Institute seems to be stepping up its development campaign to bring in new donors. It’s a wise move considering the federal budget woes. It seems unlikely that government money for the project will be returning any time soon. It’s up to all of us to make a difference. Visit the website to become a SETIStar.

The other big story came from a paper published in the journal Acta Astronautica by Seth Baum, Jacob Haqq-Misra and Shawn Domagal-Goldman entitled: “Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis." The Penn State and NASA Planetary Science Division paper explores scenarios for extraterrestrial First Contact, organized as a scale of sorts from positive to neutral to negative. On the positive end of things the aliens may want to help us solve our problems and share knowledge. On the negative pole they may want to destroy us because of what we have done to our Earth environment, and what that means for other star systems if we learn how to travel the galaxy. The authors also explore the idea that aliens could intentionally or unintentionally harm us with disease or by providing technology. The authors responded to media interviews saying that while extraterrestrial contact is unlikely, the scenario exploration helps to lay the groundwork for a First Contact response plan.

It’s fascinating to see how the media pick up on things. The article was actually published way back in April. A British paper did a story last week and then through story sharing and competition more than 100 outlets on my Google search list picked up the story. It’s heartening that the media actually paid attention to an academic paper related to First Contact. Of course, the primary focus was on the aggressive scenarios. I love the headlines for this particular story. You can tell a lot about a media outlet from their headlines:

Reuters: Research explores potential outcomes of contact with aliens. Come on Reuters, that isn’t very exciting. Can’t we amp this up a bit?

Fox News Boston: Experts release ET Invasion Scenarios. See, now that’s a bit more interesting.

Times of India: Aliens Could End Global Warming, or Kill Us. Straight to the point. I bet we could put an even better spin on it.

Fox News National: Aliens Could Attack Earth to End Global Warming, NASA Scientist Frets. Wow, much better and we get to slam the federal government and global warming concerns all in one headline. Jackpot!

Annoying First Contact

2011-08-18T07:04:00.000-05:00

Okay, here’s the thought for the day: how would we react if visiting extraterrestrials simply said hello and then refused to tell us anything about themselves or the universe? I like to call this scenario annoying First Contact, because our human curiosity would drive us just about crazy with questions. It’s a different scenario then stumbling on an engineered signal. With the discovery of an engineered signal there would be no actual communication initially and thus the origin and nature of the signal would be a scientific puzzle that we could work on solving. It actually fits well into the current human process of knowledge building. Annoying First Contact does not fit well into our thought process. It would be the excitement and promise of a wealth of new information and then the dismay of having the door to that knowledge slammed in our faces.

Hopefully, in such a case they would tell us why they decided not to reveal anything. They may even say they are doing it in our own best interest. We could develop into a stronger civilization if we are forced to grasp and claw for every scientific achievement. Perhaps they tell us about their history and biology and then refuse to tell us about their science and technology? How would we react? It seems likely that we would feel inferior in comparison to an advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Being purposely kept from information that would be easy for them to share would be insulting and a further blow to the collective human ego.

If we ever do meet extraterrestrial visitors it seems likely that they would keep some information from us, whether it is fear of what we might do with that knowledge or as a form of protection. It could be information we would not know how to process. Astrophysicists posit that an extraterrestrial civilization could be many thousands if not millions of years in advance of us in development. How could we expect to understand the science and technology of such a civilization? Their conception of the cosmos could be beyond our comprehension. Maybe they would feed us bits of information over the years, slowly catching us up to their level of understanding?

No matter what, humans had better be prepared for some frustrating elements of First Contact. It seems unlikely it would occur in our dream scenario of beneficent aliens bestowing to us the secrets of the universe in one fell swoop. First Contact will likely be just like everything else in our world: complex, challenging and often annoying.

The Dangers Involved in Receiving Extraterrestrial Information

2011-08-15T06:45:00.001-05:00

It’s easy to assume that receiving extraterrestrial knowledge, as a result of First Contact, is a good thing. While there may be benefits, there are also many serious concerns. Albert Harrison summarizes them in his paper “Networking with our Galactic Neighbors”, part of a Foundation For the Future report.

Overload: The danger that too much information will cause humans to miss the subtleties and overlook important ideas.

Culture Lag: The time that it takes human society to catch up to the new ideas revealed by extraterrestrials.

Lack of Understanding: There would be clear dangers in humans failing to fully understand the information and trying to reproduce technology. Mistakes could be disastrous.

Losing our Curiosity: If we are spoon fed the secrets of the universe (at least as known by this particular extraterrestrial civilization or group of civilizations) will we lose the initiative to explore and learn on our own?

All of these concerns raise the need for intermediation. A data dump of information would be incredibly tough for humans to decipher and could have many negative consequences. If the extraterrestrials are far in advance of us in terms of technological and social development, we may need to be schooled. The information would likely be complex and need explanation. Extraterrestrials would be the only ones capable of doing this. Whether they would want to educate us is another matter entirely.

How would we react to being students? Several authors in the Foundation For the Future report discuss the impact to the human psyche. It seems plausible that human society could suffer from a collective inferiority complex After First Contact. We could go from being the lone masters of the universe (at least in our own minds) to relative babies in terms of scientific knowledge and technological prowess.

The actual impact of First Contact could depend on how the entire process for diplomacy and knowledge transfer goes forward. In addition to safeguards through information gatekeeping, both on the part of extraterrestrials and humans, it would seem important to make the celebration of being human part of the larger context. We must learn to appreciate what we have and what we hold valuable as humans. Then we need to realistically understand our place in the larger scheme of things. One can only submit to being a student when they are confident in their talents and truly ready to listen and learn.

Gatekeeping After First Contact

2011-08-11T06:41:00.001-05:00

I have long advocated for a conservative approach to diplomacy and relations with any extraterrestrial civilization we might meet in the future. Strangely, this isn’t an idea shared by many in the SETI research community. Albert Harrison is one of the few to suggest that gatekeeping could be important After First Contact. In his paper “Networking with our Galactic Neighbors”, part of a Foundation For the Future report, Harrison describes gatekeeping as regulating the information that might be released to us by an extraterrestrial civilization. The gatekeeping could be handled by the extraterrestrial civilization to control us, for our protection or their benefit, or it could be done by humans to protect or control other humans. If you read this blog regularly you know that I advocate gatekeeping to carefully control information dissemination After First Contact. Receiving extraterrestrial information in a massive flood could be dangerous both in the short and long-term. A well thought out process could protect our cultural institutions, better determine how information might be processed, and keep our sciences and research institutions from being washed away in the torrent of new knowledge.

Even if the extraterrestrials have their own set of gatekeeping protocols, it would seem necessary for humans to have a system as well. A coordinating body could work with academia, government and other groups to provide a framework for sorting through the information and considering the impact of such knowledge on human civilization. Clearly, such a body would be put in a powerful position. So, how do we prevent human gatekeeping from being used by governments or agencies for special interest? Complete transparency in process seems to be the only solution. How could you empower a body to sort through secret information and still keep the process transparent? It would be complicated, but seems possible. The key is to make all decision making in public. Every meeting could be streamed and the proceedings carefully documented on the web. You could allow for worldwide participation in the process by the regular consideration of outside opinions and viewpoints. It would also be important to make sure the body in charge of a certain field of study was not subject to political whims or corporate pressure.

The key is to spread the power out among nations and among people to achieve some degree of global participation. The international coalition of experts would have to report to a larger body, responsible for the organization of the overall effort. There would be the danger of bureaucratic inefficiency and lack of progress. It would be necessary to give some in the group the power to keep the process moving forward.

Needless to say, it would ultimately be the keepers of such information, the extraterrestrials involved in First Contact, to decide how the process should work. They would likely have their own view of how such information, if any at all, should be disseminated to humans. However, as in all things After First Contact, it would be critical that humans make the final determination as to what happens. Self-determination will become the central issue for humans After First Contact. We will have to fight for our culture and our future no matter how benign the intentions of our visitors. It is our society that will be at risk, not theirs.

Public Donations Save SETI (for now)

2011-08-09T06:55:00.002-05:00

Excellent news this week in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). The Allen Radio Telescope Array is going back online after a fundraising drive by the SETI Institute. The work, conducted in conjunction with UC Berkeley, was funded by the National Science Foundation and the state of California. Those funds were cut, forcing SETI researchers to ask for help from the public. They’ve raised more than $200,000 in donations so far and that’s enough to get the project up and running again. However, they’re hoping they may be able to fund the entire yearly budget with private donations. If you want to do your part to push forward the frontiers of science please consider a donation.

Technology, Finance and the Failure of our Cultural Institutions

2011-08-08T06:31:00.002-05:00

If an extraterrestrial was to view life on Earth in 2011, what would they consider the most serious threats to our human civilization? Nuclear weapons? Damage to the environment? Religious differences? All of these are perfectly logical answers. I have another threat to add to the list: our rapidly developing information technology. The problem is not in the technology itself, the issue is with the inability of our slow-reacting cultural institutions to control that technology. Our tech wizardry is growing at an exponential rate and creating situations that our governments and financial institutions simply cannot handle. The recent global economic crisis is a good example of where this could be headed. Technology has allowed for increasingly complicated financial transactions and trading interconnected on a global scale as never seen before. Our governments however, did not fully understand what was occurring when the speculation bubbles grew and banks were taking serious risks. It was not just a problem in the United States. Many countries have been, and still are, experiencing disturbing speculation. Just witness the ghost cities of China, where massive speculative building projects serve very small populations. That bubble is just waiting to burst. Apparently, even in a controlled economy bad things can happen.

Governments did not take action in the early 2000s to reduce risk through management and regulation. They allowed the financial entities to make increasingly poor decisions. Throw into the mix the age-old problem of human greed and you have a particularly volatile situation. Bad mortgages in Florida quickly lead to unemployment in China. This is well illustrated in the recent movie “The Inside Job” and I am over simplifying to make a point. The movie shows that complicated financial trading and lack of substantial regulation, when combined with greed and self-interest, caused a massive earthquake in the world financial system. The problem is made worse by the rapidly expanding use of technology in world markets. We are not keeping pace with our machines. We unleash them on the markets and quickly find that one programming error can cause the U.S. stock market to plummet. Computers are no longer a tool in the financial system- they have become the puppet master of sorts. Human trading is a poor money maker. The faster the computer and the better designed the program, the more money that can be made. You don’t bet on a company actually creating anything. These days you let the computer trade in split second actions that treat the market, and business stocks, like a series of rising and falling waves.

The individual governments on Earth are having huge problems in trying to control the increasingly complex financial systems. Derivatives nearly brought the world to its collective knees for one primary reason (well, aside again from greed) - very few cultural institutions had regulators that fully understood them.

So, how does an extraterrestrial view all of this, if they happen to be watching? Humans have built interconnected systems of finance that can spread trouble like wildfire across the globe in a matter of days, if not hours or minutes. Yet we have no real global ability to regulate that financial action. Sure, we have some quasi-global entities, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The best these groups can hope to accomplish is better economic cooperation. Their main function seems to be helping third world nations by providing loans and advice

The G-20, or Group of 20, has made strides to set a new agenda in recent years and that is one positive outcome of the most recent global financial crisis. The group provides a regular forum for the 20 major world financial powers to discuss economic issues. It’s certainly a more international body than the exclusive and European-American dominated G-8. World leaders seem to recognize that the G-20 needs a more formal nature and hopefully one day actual rule-making ability. The real question is whether the movement towards more formality and power in the G-20 and other international groups is progressing quickly enough to serve the fragile world economy.

The founding of the European Central Bank and the Euro currency also serve as a possible model for nations on Earth.The European Union was created to allow European countries to better compete as a bloc, rather than as individual nations, with the United States, China and other growing economies. Still, the supranational organization of the 27 member European Union is an important role model for future development and the first of its kind on Earth. It shows that nations can join together with aligned economic and political interests, working in concert, rather than working in competition. This can occur without the individual nations losing cultural significance and independence.

Our technology and interconnectedness makes us like a teenager given the keys to a Lamborghini sports car. We barely know how to drive and yet we have a technological machine that can go 180 miles an hour. The worst part is that the achievable speed of that technological machine will continue to skyrocket. Tomorrow we’ll be able to go 200 miles an hour and in a year 300 miles an hour. What are the chances that the still inexperienced teen will wreck the thing at those speeds?

Our cultural institutions are failing us. We labor under tribal arrangements, disguised these days as international politics, which go back centuries. We attempt to solve world problems with a haphazard and confusing set of alliances, counter-alliances, back-door deals and all out hostilities. It’s truly a wonder we’ve survived this long.

An informed extraterrestrial would have to give pause before saying hello. Could our fragile financial system handle such an event? Could international organizations step up to the plate and lead this fractious human civilization? Do we have the ability to be anything more than bickering tribes trying to sell each other goods and gain advantage in a confusing and raucous world market place? Take a few steps off the planet and you begin to see the challenges we face in the coming years. It’s a sobering view.

Implications of the Galactic Club

2011-08-01T06:29:00.003-05:00

Let’s say that First Contact does occur some day. Just who do we meet? Is it a lonely civilization or a group of civilizations, part of a galactic amalgamation of some sort? SETI researchers have called this concept the Galactic Club, so named by Ronald Bracewell.

The informal nature of the name gives it wide latitude in organization. The Galactic Club could be just a couple of extraterrestrial civilizations communicating over the vast distances of space. It could also be a more organized and controlled group, similar to the United Federation of Planets concept in Star Trek.

In his paper, “Networking with our Galactic Neighbors” (part of the The Foundation For the Future report “When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact.”) Albert Harrison explores both the possibilities and impacts of the Galactic Club concept. Harrison posits that the nature of the Galactic Club could depend on its level of development. Early efforts would likely be looser in connection. A more highly developed organization could come to act as a supranational system of galactic government.

This idea is a critical one for humans to consider. If we meet a lone civilization there is a clear path for diplomacy and relations. If First Contact occurs with a member of a Galactic Club things could be much, much more complicated. Alliances and rivalries could enter into the picture. We could easily find ourselves involved in a galactic political struggle.

On a more positive note a strong Galactic Club, as Harrison points out, could have strict rules for First Contact with a newly found civilization. This could help make the process easier and perhaps include safeguards in protecting our culture.

Harrison points out that humanity could actually be the founder of such a Galactic Club. But given the high odds that any extraterrestrial civilizations we make contact with will be further along in development than us, in thousands, if not millions of years, we need to consider the more complicated scenario of us entering into an established Galactic Club as a naïve member.

Humans speaking with one voice is essential in any First Contact scenario. In the case of a complicated, multi-civilization scenario it becomes critical for our survival. We may not last long, or have an outcome we like, if we act as a disjointed group of nations here on Earth. At the very least, it seems improbable that we would benefit from interstellar relationships if we remain divided and warring here on Earth.

Harrison says that a galactic club of any formal organization would likely have a well-developed framework for First Contact, carefully managing when such an event might occur and the subsequent communication and diplomacy. If it is a beneficent club that could be good for us. They could walk us through an established process. Harrison says dealing with a group could be less threatening to us, since a single civilization could act in a number of extreme ways in First Contact, while an organized bureaucracy would likely act in a more careful and established fashion.

There is always the possibility of a controlling, malevolent Galactic Club. One can imagine the Empire in the Star Wars series. However, Harrison points to political research to show that quarrelsome, violent civilizations would likely have a shorter life than civilizations that form defensive and strategic alliances. Perhaps a tougher thing for humanity to handle would be a Galactic Club that we didn’t understand at all, in terms of makeup or interaction. It might take years and decades to wade through the history to determine just how a Galactic Club came into being and what it holds for us, the newest members.

The Debate Over the Probability of Extraterrestrial Life

2011-07-28T12:20:00.000-05:00

The Drake Equation is one of the hallmarks of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) research movement. It seeks to describe in an equation the probability of technologically advanced civilizations existing outside of Earth. It is named for Frank Drake, a founder of the SETI movement, who came up with the equation during a historic meeting of astrophysicists in 1961. While it was a groundbreaking consideration of the issue, it has been controversial over the years, primarily due to the wide interpretation that can be given to the various parts of the equation. Drake says that the equation suggests there may be 10,000 communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy alone.

David Spiegel with Princeton University and Edwin Turner with the University of Tokyo have made headlines this week with a paper in which they take a new look at the question, applying a different mathematical model. The specifics of the Bayesian statistical framework they use are too complicated for me to understand or explain. Please see the paper for details. The conclusion of the piece suggests that estimates for the possibility of extraterrestrial life in the universe may be far too high and from their mathematical model it’s just a probable that we are alone in the universe. Certainly a sobering analysis. However, you need to look closer at the paper to see what they are really suggesting. They state in several places that the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and extraterrestrial biology is the only way to solve the problem. We need to look for these signs to better determine the probability of extraterrestrial life. That seems a bit obvious- if we find extraterrestrial life then it’s more likely there is extraterrestrial life in the universe. The real question is the number of planets with life. With no evidence of life outside of Earth, our current state, the likelihood is low. With the discovery of astrobiology there is a much greater likelihood of widespread life and thus intelligence.

Most extraterrestrial life considerations rely on speculation. Even the best ideas, such as the Drake Equation, rely greatly on speculation. This doesn’t take away from SETI research. A systematic, scientific search of the universe for signs of extraterrestrial life is the only way to get beyond the speculation and work in the realm of fact. That’s what SETI does each day. The exciting NASA Kepler Mission has discovered many planets, some of which could be habitable. This is concrete scientific research at its best. Astrophysicists are pushing the frontier of our knowledge and at breakneck speed. It’s an exciting time to be human.

The rest of the discussion of extraterrestrial intelligence is simply conjecture. This blog is primarily speculation. Many of us will continue to speculate, consider possibilities and offer opinions. There’s plenty of room for that too. Science fiction authors and futurists have offered up ideas on the subject for decades. If there ever is a solid scientific discovery that speculation could be quite valuable to help us create a path to move forward. Spiegel and Turner just have one big message for us: don’t get your hopes up.

Collective Mediocrity or a Celebration of the Human?

2011-07-25T06:42:00.002-05:00

Who do we become After First Contact? How do we perceive ourselves and other intelligent beings in the universe? Human diversity models may provide a framework for moving forward. The diversity initiative seeks to celebrate human cultures while allowing for differences. Diversity in action says: I celebrate my culture and yet I am interested in learning about your culture. Through dialog, we can respect, and hopefully enjoy, the cultures of others.

Does all that sound like consultant-inspired, touchy-feely, mumbo-jumbo? I’ll admit the rhetoric does get to be a bit much sometimes. But diversity is an important concept for humans, especially in a country as culturally rich as the United States. It helps us to grow stronger by exploring our differences. Those differences inspire creativity, new approaches in business and entrepreneurism.

Diversity has important implications for First Contact. It says that we can take pride in what it means to be human, while respecting, and hopefully enjoying, the culture of extraterrestrials. In all seriousness, what could be more important After First Contact? Understanding is the bridge to start a new relationship, assuming of course, that communication allows us to share such information.

The Foundation For the Future report “When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact” spends a great deal of time examining the impact of First Contact on the collective human psyche, with special attention to the challenges presented if the extraterrestrial visitors are thousands of years further along in development than us. Albert Harrison has an article entitled “Social Comparison, Identity and Self-Esteem.” It may sound a bit esoteric, given the groundbreaking set of circumstances inherent in high-information First Contact. In reality, as Harrison points out, it may be one of the most important issues for human development After First Contact. Do we experience a feeling of collective mediocrity? In many human First Contact situations the less technologically advanced society is more likely to change, sometimes in drastic ways that undermine the cultural foundation of the lesser civilization. Harrison says that the type of ETI we encounter will decide our outcome. Are they overtly controlling or domineering? Do they provide us with much information and technology, essentially solving our problems for us and causing us to suffer from a type of learned helplessness?

The future After First Contact does not necessarily have to be this bleak. We can decide how we want to change. Comparing ourselves to ETI thousands, if not millions, of years more developed than us seems like a destructive waste of time. It’s not unlike humans comparing success: there will always be someone richer, more attractive and happier than you. Peace of mind means knowing who you are and not worrying about your status in relationship to others.

What could we do After First Contact? It would seem important to celebrate the distinctive elements of human culture. Reinforcing what we find valuable in being human could help protect our civilization. Controlling the rate of change, through careful filters in the dissemination of extraterrestrial knowledge, would also help. We would need to keep looking forward as a civilization to where we are going and where we want to be and not let extraterrestrials decide the path for us. We should determine the road forward based on our own needs and unique characteristics. An extraterrestrial civilization could certainly provide valuable insight into how we might progress, but ultimately it should be up to us to decide what we will become.

Harrison makes one other prediction in his article. He says the outcome for human civilization will be set in the first few decades After First Contact. If true, this would make it imperative for humans to respond quickly to the identity challenges After First Contact and set a self-guided course for humanity into the new era.

When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact

2011-07-18T07:06:00.005-05:00

I would like to correct a major omission in this blog. Over the years I have frequently bemoaned the lack of serious consideration of the implications for human society in First Contact. While I’ll still maintain that there is not nearly enough discussion, I have missed an important and comprehensive examination of the issue. In 1999 Allen Tough, working with the Foundation For the Future, put together a seminar in Hawaii that featured 16 scholars and their perspective of issues relating to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) and most importantly the aftermath of First Contact. Tough later collected the results of that discussion and the series of papers created for the seminar, in a publication titled “When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact.”

It is one of the most insightful and wide-reaching explorations of the subject that I have found. The group of participants will be familiar to those who read this blog: Albert Harrison, Jill Tarter, Steven Dick, Paul Davies, Douglas Vakoch, John Billingham and Ben Finney, among others. And through the papers other noted writers such as Michael Michaud and Donald Tarter added their thoughts.

The importance of this particular seminar is that while it does touch on issues of SETI research methods, it is primarily focused on issues of human reaction and response to First Contact, both in the short-term and the long-term. Why do we care? Several of the seminar participants note that while there are protocols in place for researchers to handle the scientific aspects of First Contact response, there are virtually no plans for a wider societal response. In particular, the focus on high-information First Contact is important because it has received very little attention in the field of SETI research. High-information First Contact is quite different from the simple discovery of some engineered extraterrestrial signal that we don’t understand. High-information means that we gain knowledge from First Contact. Extraterrestrial information would have wide-reaching implications for human society.

In the paper “The Role of Social Science in SETI” several authors suggest a simple scale showing, much in the same vein as hurricane warnings, the impact of First Contact.

Force One: Knowledge that we are not alone, primarily in discovery of some form of extraterrestrial communication.

Force Two: Humans gaining scientific or technical knowledge from communication with an extraterrestrial culture.

Force Three: Direct interaction with an extraterrestrial culture leading to a long-term dialog.

While the authors maintain that Force One is the most likely scenario, the real challenges for humanity lie in Force Two and Force Three First Contact. They create the most disruption to human society and would cause the greatest change. How that change occurs and to what degree is a matter of debate. Several of the authors predict that a Force Three scenario would be deeply troubling for humanity and perhaps have primarily negative outcomes.

The call for action in this paper is for greater involvement in the SETI discussion by researchers in the social sciences, and in the areas specifically related to gauging how humanity actually perceives extraterrestrial contact and how humanity might react to such news. Social scientists could conduct in-depth surveys to try and better determine how humans might respond to certain First Contact scenarios. Most surveys conducted thus far have been shallow, mainstream media oriented and extremely narrow in focus. While many people use the results of those surveys to show that humans would not be perturbed by First Contact, that view seems questionable given the lack of examination of high-information First Contact scenarios and the threat implications of communicating in an active and engaged way with extraterrestrials.

Over the next several weeks I will take a closer look at some of the individual topics presented in the seminar and resulting publication. It is material well worth an in-depth look.

Foundational Information versus Application Specific Information

2011-07-11T06:52:00.002-05:00

I advocate for tightly controlled interaction with an extraterrestrial civilization After First Contact. Not that I think alien First Contact is likely to happen soon, but if it does I think there are many reasons to suggest a conservative approach to information sharing.

That said, I think it’s important to note the different types of information that might be involved. Foundational information is the type of knowledge that involves the fundamentals of who they are and what they know about the universe. It can include everything from their history and biology to the nature of the cosmos and even the basic features of particle physics from their perspective. I think foundational information could be shared in the very first weeks and months After First Contact. While the information revealed might be startling, and even revelatory, it would still require humans to do some work before anything concrete in terms of technology could be obtained from those revelations.

Application specific information however, would be an entirely different prospect. If aliens were to tell us how to build a more efficient and environmentally sound form of energy generation, that knowledge would have a profound and immediate impact on our private industry, economic systems and scientific structures. It would bypass the human process of discovery and create a short cut to a new technology. While that short cut would be exciting in some respects, it could create havoc in the world economy as nations and companies scramble to take advantage. One could hope that the United Nations would try to control such information, to perhaps create a global non-profit to develop the new technology, but that would fall so far outside of our current realities of government and business that it would prove nearly impossible to control in the initial months and years After First Contact. In the long term, it could prove even more disastrous- undermining our frameworks of scientific discovery and technological development.

Foundational information could certainly lead to new technology and innovation, but it would require work on our part and work within the context of our current systems of science and business. Doing that work would keep our scientific efforts alive and force us to earn the reward.

What might foundational information reveal? I’ve been reading two books lately that examine the furthest reaches of what we know, and would like to know, about the universe. Lee Smolin suggests, in his 1997 book “The Life of the Cosmos,” that it could be nature of universes to reproduce via black holes, creating a multiverse.

The idea of multiple universes with differing physical constants points to a larger vision of the cosmos than previously imagined. It’s been a popular idea among astrophysicists and cosmologists for some time now. Paul Davies explores the many possibilities, including multiple universe theories, in his book “Cosmic Jackpot”.

These may sound like esoteric discussions, but at the fundamental level they struggle with the nature of our reality. It would seem likely that an extraterrestrial civilization would, at the very least, have a different view of reality than us and perhaps, especially if they are thousands of years more developed in intellectual thought, they might have revelations to offer us about the organization of the universe. This information could transform modern human cosmology and astrophysics and yet it would not have an immediate impact on the basic human societal functions. It would likely be a catalyst for new thinking in many scientific fields and cause changes in paradigms over many years and in a wide range of areas. However, the impact would be blunt and not specific. In contrast, information about specific technology would be sharp, focused and potentially disruptive.

This argument assumes much. Certainly extraterrestrials could say that they would rather not share any critical information with us at all. They might decide that we are not to be trusted with such knowledge. It seems likely though, that if we do make First Contact, the question of what information we ask for and what we receive will be of paramount importance. It’s essential to our future as intelligent beings in the universe that we make the right choices and take the hard road forward towards our future- an earned future.

First Contact Motivation

2011-07-04T06:31:00.003-05:00

No matter what the form of First Contact, the motivation for communication on the part of the extraterrestrials would be the foundation of the new relationship with humans. I argue that if we simply discover an engineered signal that is not First Contact. Contact by definition involves communication. Discovering a signal intended as a form of communication would fall into the First Contact scenario. That too, though, would entail a primary motivation on the part of the sender.

The number of possible motivations for extraterrestrials contacting humans seems endless, or at least bound only by our imagination. We have no actual knowledge of anything involving extraterrestrial intelligence, so any talk of motivation is merely speculation. That speculation has been the subject of a robust body of work in science fiction for decades.

Some of the possibilities include:

-They’re responding to our radio signals or messages placed on our spacecraft

-They just wanted to say hello

-They’re scientifically curious

-They want to convert us to their form of religion

-They want to warn us about something

-They want to reveal something

-They want to conquer us

-They want to be our friends

-They didn’t mean to make contact at all, it was a mistake

The science fiction writers have been much more creative than this meager list shows. My point is simply that the motivation of extraterrestrials should be of top concern to us in the event of First Contact. And that brings up another issue: will they tell us their true motivation for First Contact? It’s easy to assume that aliens would be honest. But honesty is a human trait and dishonesty perhaps just as common. It will be important for us to not only ask why they have made contact, but we will have to try and determine the underlying motivations that they might not be willing to share. This may sound a bit paranoid, but we would be dealing with creatures that we don’t understand at all. Caution and critical thinking would seem essential in such a situation.

Of course, motivation is a two-way street. The relationship will also be formed by our motivations for First Contact. It may seem like a cut and dried case of curiosity on our end. But is that the only motivation? First Contact would probably bring to light a bunch of things we would hope to gain in a new relationship: knowledge, new technology, a solution to global warming, revelations about the true nature of the physical world and new energy sources.

Eight Things We Could Expect from Direct First Contact

2011-06-27T07:01:00.003-05:00

Here are eight things we could expect from Direct First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. That is, First Contact that involves extraterrestrial visitors coming to earth.

1. If an extraterrestrial is curious enough to contact humans it would probably share some of our intellectual abilities and value orientations. This idea comes from psychologist John Baird in his book "The Inner Limits of Outer Space".

2. If they reach us first they are likely to be scientifically and technologically superior to us. This again is from the Baird book, but a common idea shared by many. It is really common sense. We don’t have the ability to travel between stars. If they come here they do have that ability. Ergo they are more technologically advanced.

3. If they wish to make contact they would likely do research first. They would probably examine our environment, language, culture and psychological nature. Once again, this is a proposition derived from common sense. If they have the ability to travel between stars they have problem solving abilities. Research is a basic step in problem solving.

4. They would most likely have a motivation for First Contact and a plan for carrying it out. If you understand problem solving you probably won’t take serious action without a plan.

5. They would be bringing their party to our house. First Contact, at least in the initial stages, would be their objectives, their process and their rules.

6. If they have studied us thoroughly, they would realize that we would not react well to such an overtly controlling process.

7. They would probably consider ways to keep us peaceful, calm and open to communication.

8. In short: they would have a public relations plan.

What does all of this mean for us? We must be cautious at every step. We must work to determine their true motivation and what it means for us. We cannot assume their motivations will keep our best interests in mind. We must be as open as possible and not let paranoia and fear prevent us from acting effectively. We must be united in our approach and response. We must state clearly that First Contact on our planet must be carried out according to our rules. We must quickly establish guidelines and protocols for protecting our civilization and yet keeping an open dialogue to develop a fruitful relationship. We must hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

The Psychology of First Contact

2011-06-20T06:59:00.002-05:00

Contact with extraterrestrials is more than just a scientific or social challenge. There will be psychological challenges for humans. Much would depend on the type of contact. The most profound impact would be in a Direct First Contact event, where humans interact directly with extraterrestrials. There’s not much written on the psychology of First Contact. One of the better books is "The Inner Limits of Outer Space" by John Baird.

The psychologist posits that social communication with aliens will be modeled, at least from our perspective, on our own social interaction. No surprise there, modeling our behavior on what we have come to expect in human relationships is our only option- we simply don’t have any other frame of reference. For humans, and for the aliens, the relationship will be based on how each party views the other and perceives relative intelligence, social rank and knowledge.

Much of Baird’s book explores SETI based communication with extraterrestrials. He was part of a NASA study group on the issue in the 1970’s. However, his work does have application to Direct First Contact as well.

It has been expected that in a Direct First Contact scenario the visiting aliens would be more technologically advanced, which makes sense considering that we do not have the technology to visit them and by the very nature of the scenario they do have the technology to visit us. This would immediately place the relationship in a type of imbalance.

Baird suggests that while many scientists have used technology to set up possible comparison scales to extraterrestrials, a much better scale would be to determine how they think and how similar that thinking is to the human mentality. It is a bold suggestion and one that makes sense. Sure, technology will be a huge part of the discussion, but that very discussion rests on a foundation of communication and interaction. If the aliens think very differently from us the relationship will be harder to form. If they think more like us it will be easier. Science is only one way to compare civilizations. We would have a much stronger bond if they had some appreciation of the role of art and music in our society. If they have similar pursuits there will be a connection, perhaps one even stronger than science, due to the more personal nature of art and music and the deep connection of those activities to our culture.

There is a tendency for humans to view everything with an anthropocentric bias. Many prominent researchers have been arguing that our narrow definition of what could form biological life could interfere with our search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Baird was one of the first to broach the subject in the 1980s. It applies to Direct First Contact as well, as our focus on an anthropocentric view of communication could be extremely limiting in how we interact with alien intelligence.

Baird suggests that one way of helping us understand an extraterrestrial intelligence is by examining how humans perceive intelligence. Researchers say that humans have many different types of intelligence and no one measure is enough to judge the sum. Baird uses an interesting comparison in this argument, taking a look at how adults view the intelligence of a child. The very notion of growing up and gaining in knowledge is a given, but does it really make one more intelligent? You can argue that humans become more set in their ways as adults, less playful and less excited by new ideas. We can see those child-like attributes in some of the most successful older adults: a constant need for play with ideas.

Probably the biggest take-away from Baird’s book is the idea that First Contact would be an extremely complicated relationship from many perspectives. We would have to be prepared to take several steps back from our usual way of thinking and take in perspectives we have not imagined. The danger is that some humans will not want to spend the time or energy to consider such things. That could lead to knee-jerk reactions based on anthropocentric fears and judgments. If it’s simply a problem for the man or woman on the street that’s one thing, but what is the likelihood that our political leaders would be able to rise above this base level thinking?

Conspiracy Theory After First Contact

2011-06-13T06:02:00.003-05:00

Conspiracy has been popular in American culture for years and the rise of the Internet has brought it to a fever pitch in certain circles. Nothing breeds mistrust like bad information. Bill Keller of the New York Times has an interesting piece in the New York Times Magazine about conspiracy, tracing the American obsession from President Kennedy’s assassination to the President Obama birth certificate frenzy. Keller points out that much of it seems to stem from a mistrust of authority, whether that authority is a government commission or the New York Times. The Internet provides fertile ground for self-made authorities who buck conventional logic and often reality.

Now I’m about to take the question a bit further than Mr. Keller would have intended. Can you imagine all of the nut bag crazy conspiracy theories that would circulate After First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization? Keller points to a book by Mike Fenster called “Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture.” Fenster says that conspiracy is often a response to unusual events. I can’t imagine an event stranger than First Contact. In addition to that potent catalyst, humans will undoubtedly have to deal with the incredible load of conspiracy baggage that already exists concerning extraterrestrials: abduction, government collusion, secret societies and alien infiltration. If folks are already loony about extraterrestrials, and there is absolutely no credible evidence that extraterrestrials exist, what the heck happens if we have actual evidence that they do exist?

I would imagine that after a brief period of shock and awe, which will shut down most of the crazy conversation, the conspiracy bandwagon will grow new stories and crazier plots. The thing that will make it tough to refute the theories: the reality is already bizarre enough. If aliens actually do exist, is it that much of a leap to think they kidnapped and brain-mapped your cousin Clarence? And who’s to say they’re not abducting people and dissecting cows? The aliens? Like we’re going to believe them. How about a government commission? Oh, wait, let’s not go there. Perhaps the New York Times could investigate?

First Contact would fuel wilder and more robust conspiracy theories. The only possible hope is transparency. And it would have to be a brutal, bare-all type of transparency that keeps every decision and each action clearly in the public eye. That won’t be easy. It’s one of the reasons I suggest that an explosive and dramatic Direct First Contact event would be the best way for an extraterrestrial civilization to say hello in person. It bypasses government secrecy and goes straight to the people via the live media. This is an important distinction, not the behind the scenes, we don’t know what you’re leaving out or putting in media, but the live media. Events and actions need to occur in full public view and live television offers that ability in a way that no other medium can. Even with that approach there will be years and years of debunking and myth busting necessary and unfortunately the alien visitors would have to be front and center for that questioning. Sure, it’s rather annoying to say hello to a new planet and then be brought before some organization that will ask you if you have been anal probing the very beings you have just met. Annoying and necessary.

And I have one prediction that I know will stand up in any First Contact situation. No matter how transparent and no matter how many questions are answered there will always be new conspiracy theories and paranoia will fester for many, many years. It’s just the way some of us humans think and unfortunately my alien friends if you embark on a relationship with us humans you get all of us.

Extraterrestrials, Hawks and Doves

2011-06-06T06:36:00.002-05:00

If extraterrestrial intelligence is ever discovered in the universe, we may very well think back on these days as a time of relative ease of mind. The very notion that extraterrestrial civilizations exist could bring about a sudden fear. What we don’t know at all doesn’t seem to bother us, what we know only slightly could scare us half to death. The primary driver is of course that lack of knowledge. How many civilizations are out there? Can they travel? Do they plan to visit? Are they friendly? Even the slightest proof that extraterrestrial intelligence exists would inspire all of these questions and many more.

Scientists are quick to point out that given our current understanding of the physical world interstellar travel is quite impractical- both expensive and time consuming. Thus any relationship with extraterrestrials would likely be via communication. The vast distance between stars would provide a ready-made insulation of sorts, ensuring our safety. Given that our understanding of the physical world has changed rapidly over the last couple of hundred years though, it also seems likely that our science will progress and we will learn new things about the laws that govern actions in the universe.

First Contact would bring the issue of safety to the forefront of discussion and it seems likely that humans will fall into the same divisions that we currently do. The hawks and the doves will have a grand debate.

Planetary defense has been considered primarily for a much more likely threat: asteroids and other objects coming near the Earth. The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics has held yearly conferences about the issue of near Earth objects (NEO), including one conference just a few weeks ago in Romania.

NASA and several other agencies participate in these conferences and they are perhaps the best gauge of current thinking in regards to planetary defense. Still, deflecting a near Earth object would be much different than trying to defend against intelligent beings. The NEO, probably being an errant asteroid, can’t plan countermeasures or use stealth technology.

Planetary defense against alien invaders has been discussed in the world of science fiction and raised as a realistic concern by only a handful of authors. Travis Taylor, Bob Boan, Charles Anding and Conley Powell have written one of the few ETI oriented planetary defense books, called “An Introduction to Planetary Defense: A Study of Modern Warfare Applied to Extra-Terrestrial Invasion.” These engineers have been involved in aerospace research for many years and they raise several thoughtful ideas in the book about the issue of defense against extraterrestrials. The problem is that Hollywood has also weighed-in, and those special effects driven spectaculars do little to examine the real issues. This month the National Geographic Channel takes a closer look with a show called “When Aliens Attack.”

Most of the show is based on the usual television silliness, framed around an animated portrayal of an alien attack. We ponder how humans could use balloons to drop onto alien ships to stage an attack. We get animated examples of how F-18s would fare against alien fighter ships. We make assumption, after assumption; go through scenario after scenario and reveal, well…basically nothing. It isn’t that much different from what you’ve already seen in the many movies on the subject.

There is a glimmer of hope for substance in the TV show, as the issue of the U.N. protocol for extraterrestrial contact is raised. Researcher and author Michael Michaud pops up with thoughtful, albeit brief, commentary and then he’s gone and it’s back to the dramatics. Michaud is also allowed to discuss the problem of communication with aliens; however it’s also a short break from the silliness. The show does talk about the need for a global army in the case of an attack and some other interesting issues, but they are merely raised and then gone as the cheesy animated attack continues.

Okay, fine. I understand it’s just a television show. The producers are attempting to amuse middle aged men drinking a beer after mowing the lawn. But couldn’t they have spent just a few more moments hearing from this rather esteemed line-up of interview subjects? I’m sure Mr. Michaud, Seth Shostak and Travis Taylor had much more interesting things to say. Those comments are probably lost on the proverbial cutting room floor.

All of these issues would come to the forefront in the wake of First Contact. The hawks will demand a robust defense with an emphasis on new technology. The doves will say that it’s pointless to prepare and we would be better off sending positive messages to signal that we are not aggressive. Both groups will have valid points. Preparation could be tremendously important or it could be of no use at all. Aggressive actions could send the wrong message, or they could let an adversary know we won’t go down without a fight.

The problem with all of it? The unknown. Even if we intercept a signal and even if we start a conversation (likely to be decades long conversation as the messages travel back and forth) we would have many more questions than answers. We need a debate here on Earth because the answers are not clear cut. With so many variables and so many unknowns every view should be taken seriously, at least at first. Then the United Nations will need to lead the way and put together a plan of action. That will be perhaps the biggest hurdle of all. The hawks versus doves debate will bring out international squabbles and Earth-bound security concerns. Each nation will be looking not only to space for a possible confrontation, but also to their neighbors here on Earth. Will China be interested in sharing its latest military technology with the United States and vice-versa?

Without strong United Nations leadership, and a recognized body to take up the issue, it would be a debate beyond anything that we have experienced on Earth thus far. There is at least one thing we can do now- prepare ourselves for how we might handle the diplomatic and international issues of First Contact. It’s something that could reside entirely on paper and doesn’t require a big expenditure of money. Imagine how much further along we would be if we did some planning before panic strikes.

Jill Tarter of the SETI Institute, Michael Michaud and others tried to get the United Nations to take action. Michaud details the actions in his excellent book “Contact with Alien Civilizations”. They presented an International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) position paper to the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in 1996 in regards to First Contact protocol. They followed up with a briefing on the documents in 2000. Both of these were accepted by the UN and then ignored.

The issue of First Contact has so many implications that it deserves a serious treatment. The details of a defined First Contact diplomatic and response protocol might not be of much interest to a guy watching TV and drinking a beer on a Saturday afternoon. However, such a robust protocol could be a good starting point if we ever do make First Contact.